Use the time series data you have collected as part of your previous assignments to address the following questions. If the time series data you have utilized is not long enough for the purposes of this assignment you may either make an attempt to extend it with new observations or decide to use a different data set. 1. Conduct a classical additive time series decomposition of your time series (a) Determine the order of the moving average you would use to extract the trend-cycle component and briefly explain why you chose this order. (b) Use the moving average of your choice to extract the trend-cycle component of your time series and plot it on the same graph with your actual data series. (c) Extract the seasonal component, add it to the trend-eyele component above, and plot the resulting series on the same graph with your actual data. Briefly explain how you computed the seasonal effects. (d) Extract the irregular shock component of your time series, compute the standard accuracy measures, and test whether this residual component is well-behaved. 2. Conduct a classical multiplicative time series decomposition of your time series. (a) Determine the order of the moving average you would use to extract the trend-cycle component and briefly explain why you chose this order. (b) Use the moving average of your choice to extract the trend-cycle component of your time series and plot it on the same graph with your actual data series. (c) Extract the seasonal component, add it to the trend-cycle component above, and plot the resulting series on the same graph with your actual data. Briefly explain how you computed the scasonal effects (d) Extract the irregular shock component of your time series, compute the standard accuracy measures. and test whether this residual component is well-bchaved. ( Use the time series data you have collected as part of your previous assignments to address the following questions. If the time series data you have utilized is not long enough for the purposes of this assignment you may either make an attempt to extend it with new observations or decide to use a different data set. 1. Conduct a classical additive time series decomposition of your time series (a) Determine the order of the moving average you would use to extract the trend-cycle component and briefly explain why you chose this order. (b) Use the moving average of your choice to extract the trend-cycle component of your time series and plot it on the same graph with your actual data series. (c) Extract the seasonal component, add it to the trend-eyele component above, and plot the resulting series on the same graph with your actual data. Briefly explain how you computed the seasonal effects. (d) Extract the irregular shock component of your time series, compute the standard accuracy measures, and test whether this residual component is well-behaved. 2. Conduct a classical multiplicative time series decomposition of your time series. (a) Determine the order of the moving average you would use to extract the trend-cycle component and briefly explain why you chose this order. (b) Use the moving average of your choice to extract the trend-cycle component of your time series and plot it on the same graph with your actual data series. (c) Extract the seasonal component, add it to the trend-cycle component above, and plot the resulting series on the same graph with your actual data. Briefly explain how you computed the scasonal effects (d) Extract the irregular shock component of your time series, compute the standard accuracy measures. and test whether this residual component is well-bchaved. (
