Treasury securities are bonds issued by the U.S. government. The accompanying data file contains quarterly data on treasury securities, measured in millions of U.S. dollars.

a-1. Estimate the exponential trend model with seasonal dummy variables.Report the coefficient for trend t.

Note: Negative values for regression coefficients should be indicated by a minus sign. Round final answers to 3 decimal places.

Predictor Variable With Trend

Trend (t) _______

a-2. Use the estimated model to forecast to make a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2018.

Note: Do not round coefficient estimates. Round final answer to the nearest whole number.

Forecast for 4th Quarter of 2018 = _________

Year	Quarter	Securities
2010	1	927527
2010	2	1038881
2010	3	1000829
2010	4	1048601
2011	1	935623
2011	2	747999
2011	3	629502
2011	4	626883
2012	1	705854
2012	2	754613
2012	3	717374
2012	4	874749
2013	1	937986
2013	2	1081316
2013	3	1093418
2013	4	1101723
2014	1	975095
2014	2	797095
2014	3	767218
2014	4	748575
2015	1	811307
2015	2	935765
2015	3	1044943
2015	4	1141121
2016	1	1153108
2016	2	1092073
2016	3	1161773
2016	4	1446411
2017	1	1386055
2017	2	1478017
2017	3	1343458
2017	4	1477573
2018	1	1899137
2018	2	1977311
2018	3	2284572