Two recent graduates from business school (Mark Van and Sheila Epps) decided to set up an investment company to acquire home mortgages that are in default but that they hope to restructure in ways that make it possible for the homeowner to continue making payments and thus retain ownership of their home. To evaluate the feasibility of their investment strategy, Mark and Sheila decided to evaluate their funds performance under different economic conditions applied to the coming year. Specifically, they estimated their funds performance for the next year under each of four states of the economy and estimated the probability of each state:

State of economy	Probability	Fund Return
Rapid expansion and recovery	5%	100%
Modest growth	30%	35%
Continued recession	55%	5%
Falls into depression	10%	-100%

a. Based on potential outcomes, what is your estimate of the expected rate of return from this investment opportunity?