Uht'.' Llltr.I deUll lIldLllK llUlll IIUIIIUBI J. LU l.l=Lt'..'llllllH:'.I Llle UPLIIIIUIII bLdeBgy IU your client (the challenger). Show all your work. The Challenger wants to balance out the payoffs for the incumbent to create indifference in the incumbent. Expected value of either choice is the same. Incumbent Es = Eb (the expected value to stay = the expected value to break away) L a: on c 2 W .: U Let P = percentage Es=4p+2(p1)=4p+2p~2=6p2 Eb=0p+3(p-1)=3p3 6p - 2 = 3p - 3 (subtract 3p from both sides) 3p 2 = -3 (add 2 to both sides) 3p = 1 P = _?1 = 33% Meaning that the challenger loses 33% of the votes when he stays with party ties