Uncertainty and risk A project analyst estimates that a proposed project will have an expected return of 16%, which is higher than the Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return demanded by the corporation. He decides to also conduct a study of the uncertainties of a project and arrives at the conclusion that the project will have the following possible returns:

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Return & P(return)

8% 3.85%

10% 9.62%

12% 17.31%

14% 13.46%

16% 18.27%

18% 17.31%

20% 10.58%

22% 3.85%

24% 5.77%

The analyst submits his recommendation to the board that the project should not be undertaken, even though it is expected to provide a return greater than the MARR. Why do you think that this might be the case? Under what conditions this decision might be warranted? Under what conditions might the analyst's position be overturned?