Unit 6 case - Hillbilly Hiking, LLC Due to its strong performance and growth, Hillbilly Hiking Inc. has brought you on board as its first marketing manager. You've come to realize that the owner makes the decisions by the seat of his pants. You want to bring a more systematic approach based upon data. The business is a hiking and camping supply store based in Cleveland, TN, and has been in operation for three years. To better plan for future growth of the store, you will develop a system that allows you to forecast sales by month for up to one year in advance. The table below (and attached file) shows the value of store sales ($1000s) for the first three years of operation. Store Sales for the Hillbilly Hiking ($1000s) Month First Year Second Year Third Year January February March April May June July August September October November December 107 128 Managerial Report Perform an analysis of the sales data for Hillbilly Hiking, LLC. Prepare a report for the owner (Marc Gilbert) that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations in order to get him on board for your strategic shift. (Remember, he has been pretty successful with his approach.) Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series. 2. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each month, and comment on the high and low seasonal sales months. Do the seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss. 3. Using the dummy variable regression approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. 4. Provide summary tables of your calculations and any graphs in the appendix of your report. Unit 6 case - Hillbilly Hiking, LLC Due to its strong performance and growth, Hillbilly Hiking Inc. has brought you on board as its first marketing manager. You've come to realize that the owner makes the decisions by the seat of his pants. You want to bring a more systematic approach based upon data. The business is a hiking and camping supply store based in Cleveland, TN, and has been in operation for three years. To better plan for future growth of the store, you will develop a system that allows you to forecast sales by month for up to one year in advance. The table below (and attached file) shows the value of store sales ($1000s) for the first three years of operation. Store Sales for the Hillbilly Hiking ($1000s) Month First Year Second Year Third Year January February March April May June July August September October November December 107 128 Managerial Report Perform an analysis of the sales data for Hillbilly Hiking, LLC. Prepare a report for the owner (Marc Gilbert) that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations in order to get him on board for your strategic shift. (Remember, he has been pretty successful with his approach.) Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series. 2. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each month, and comment on the high and low seasonal sales months. Do the seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss. 3. Using the dummy variable regression approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. 4. Provide summary tables of your calculations and any graphs in the appendix of your report
