Updated Question... Use the entire data set in developing your forecast for 2022 Quarter 2 through 2023 Quarter 1. To
save time, consider only the following possible forecasting models:
use data sheets to answer questions
4. Use the entire data set in developing your forecast for 2022 Quarter 2 through 2023 Quarter 1. To save time, consider only the following possible forecasting models: Simple Exponential Smoothing Model with a = 0.90 Holt Exponential Smoothing Model with a = 0.90 and B = 0.10 Again, provide your work on calculating the within RMSE values and the actual forecast. (10 points) 5. Compare your results for the two polynomial forecasting questions (questions 2 and 3). Does changing the time period used make a difference in RMSE values? If you look at a graph of the data, do your comparative results make sense? (5 points) 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 4 13397,002 113478.152 2 13538.072 3 13559,032 4 13634.253 113751.543 2 13985,073 3 14145.645 4 14221.147 114329.523 2 14464984 3 14609.876 4 14771./602 114839.782 2 14972.054 3 15066.597 4 15267.026 1 15302.705 2 15326.368 3 15456.928 4 15493.328 1 15582.085 15666.738 2 3 15761.967 4 15671.383 115752.308 2 15667,032 3 15328.027 4 15155.940 1 15134.117 2 15189.222 3 15356.058 4 15415,145 115557.277 2 15671.967 3 15750.625 4 15712.754 115825.096 2 15820.700 3 16004.107 4 16129.418) 116198.807 2 16220.667 3 16239.138 4 16382.964 1 16403.180 2 16531,685 3 16663.649 4 16621.696 116830.111 2 17033.572 3 17113.945 4 17254,744 117397,029 2 17438.802 3 17456.225 4 17523.374 1 17622.486 2 17706.705 3 17784.185 4 17863,023 1 17995.150 2 18120.843 3 18223.758 4 18323.963 118511.576 *** 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213. 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 www 5.700 178067 1191.500 5.833 179.467 1189.767 5.733 180.433 1194,100 5,867 181.500 1211,233 5.867 183.367 1235.000 6.133 183.067 1266.533 6.133 184,433 1293.633 5.833 185.133 1301.033 5.700 156.700 1318.933 5.600 188.167 1336.100 5.433 189.367 1352.267 5.433 191.400 1370.900 5.300 192.367 1370.267 5.100 193.667 1367.833 4.967 196.600 1374.433 4.967 198433 1375.800 4.733 199.467 1381.533 4.633 201.267 1380.867 4.633 203.167 1368.567 4433 202.333 1369,400 4.500 204.317 1368.867 4.500 206.631 1375.167 4,667 207.939 1372.900 4.800 210.490 1375.100 5.000 212.770 1384.500 5.333 215.538 1395.833 6.000 218.861 1428.133 6.867 213.849 1530.300 8.267 212.378 1579.300 9.300 213.507 1628.533 9.633 215.344 1660.000 9.913 217030 1684.533 9.833 217.374 1698.333 9.633 217.297 1712.967 9.467 217.934 1744.200 9.500 219.699 1815.067 9,033 222.044 1875.033 9.067 224.568 1931.200 9.000 226.033 2079.033 8.633 227.047 2156.600 8.267 228.326 2215.733 8.200 228.808 2260.367 8.033 229.841 2351.000 7.800 231.369 2435.233 7.733 232.299 2476.633 7.533 232.045 2525.733 7.233 233.300 2559.767 6.933 234.163 2636.767 6.667 235.608 2727.167 6.233 236.839 2801.367 6.100 237.459 2834.133 5.700 236.920 2897.533 5.567 235.355 2984.600 5400 236.912 3003.133 5.100 237,816 3035.233 5,000 237.888 3063.967 4.913 237.848 3131.067 4.867 239.452 3231.567 4.933 240 548 3296.700 4.733 242.177 3342.467 4,667 243.949 3411.500 4.333 244010 3483,433 4.300 245.297 3552.767 4.100 247.301 3598.967 4.100 249.442 3641.900 3.900 250,468 3657.567 1994 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 1 9392.251 2 9398.499 3 9312.937 4 9269.367 1 9341.642 2 9388.845 3 9421.565 4 9534.346 1 9637.732 2 9732.979 3 9834.510 4 9850,973 1 9908.347 9955.641 3 10091.049 4 10188.954 1 10327.019 2 10387.382 3 10506,372 4 10543.644 110575.100 2 10665.060 3 10737.478 4 10817,896 1 10998.322 2 11096.976 3 11212.205 4 11284,587 1 11472.137 2 11615.636 3 11715,393 4 11832.486 1 11942.032 2 12091.614 3 12287.000 4 12403.293 112498.694 2 12662.385 3 12877.593 4 12924.179 113160.842 2 13178.419 3 13260.506 4 13222.690 113299,984 2 13244.784 3 13280.859 4 13397.002 113478.152 2 13538.072 3 13559.032 4 13634.253 113751.543 2 13985.073 3 14145.645 4 14221.147 114329.523 214464.984 314609,876 4 14771.602 1 14839,782 2 14972.054 3 15066.597 4 15267.026 1 15302.705 2 15326.368 1 15456 028 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 5.333 129,300 806,367 5.700 131.533 815.333 6.133 133.767 822.233 6.600 134,767 832.833 6.833 135.567 849.533 6.867 136,600 866.033 7.100 137.733 887.533 7.367 138.667 924,100 7.600 139.733 949.567 7.633 140.800 975.000 7.367 142.033 1014,767 7.133 143,067 1034.100 7.067 144.100 1062.867 6.800 144.767 1094.333 6.633 145.967 1122.267 6.567 146.700 1136,000 6.200 147.533 1143.200 6.000 148.900 1151.067 5.633 149,767 1150.600 5.467 150.867 1148.500 5.667 152.100 1146.267 5.667 152.867 1144.300 5.567 153.700 1132.967 5.533 155.067 1121.533 5.500 156,400 1118,833 5.267 157.300 1103.400 5.333 158.667 1083.500 5.233 159.633 1077.500 5.000 160.000 1064.600 4.867 160.800 1069.233 4.667 161.667 1069.600 4.633 162.000 1076.233 4.400 162.533 1077,300 4.533 163.367 1076.967 4.433 164,133 1091.967 4.300 164.733 1097.133 4.267 165.967 1101.733 4.233 167.200 1098.267 4.067 168,433 1112,067 4.033 170.100 1112.767 3.933 171.433 1107.733 4.000 173.000 1101.133 3.900 174.233 1093.233 4.233 175.900 1102.300 4400 177,133 1120467 4.833 177.633 1164.867 5.500 177.500 1173.233 5.700 178.067 1191.500 5.833 179.467 1189.767 5.733 180.433 1194.100 5.867 181.500 1211,233 5.867 183.367 1235.000 6.133 183,067 1266.533 6.133 184,433 1293,633 5.833 185.133 1301,033 5.700 186.700 1318.933 5.600 188.167 1336.100 5.433 189.367) 1352.267 5.433 191.400 1370,900 5.300 192.367 1370.267 5.100 193.667 1367.833 4.967 196.600 1374433 4.967 198.433 4.733 199.467 1375.8007 1381.533 4.633 201.267 1380,867 4.633 203.167 1368.567 4411 202 331 1369400 RGDP UR: CPL MI: TREND: YEAR 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1964 1964 1965 1963 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1966 1967 1967 1967 1967 1968 1968 1968 1968 1969 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1974 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977 QTR 1 Real GDP in 2012 dollars millions of dollars) Civilian Unemployment Rate (percent) Consumer Price Index MI Money Supply (millions of dollars) Trend(observationer) RGDP TREND UR CPI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3192.380 2 3194.653 3 3203.759 4 3275.757 1 3258.088 2 3274.029 3 3232.009 4 3253.826 3309.059 2 3372.581 3 3438.721 4 3500.054 1 3531.683 2 3575.070 3 3586.827 4 3625.981 1 3666.669 2 3747.278 3 3771.845 4 3851.366 1 3893.296 2 3954.121 3 3966.335 4 4062.311 1 4113.629 2 4205.086 3 4301.973 4 4406 693 1 4421.747 2 4459.195 3 4495.777 4 4535.591 1 4538.370 2 4581.309 3 4615.853 4 4709.993 1 4788.688 2 4825.799 3 4844.779 4 4920.605 1 4935.564 2 4968.164 3 4943.935 4 4936.594 1 4943.600 4989.159 3 4935.693 4 5069.746 1 5097.179 2 5139.128 3 5151.245 4 5245.974 1 5365.045 2 5415.712 3 5506.396 4 5642.669 5704.098 I T 8 6 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 22AAAAAAAAAARRRRAA 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 TORREGRIRA 49 50 15 53 54 55 57 MI 5.100 29.043 140.533 5.267 29.193 141.533 5.600 29.370 140 267 5.133 29.397 139.900 5.233 29.573 139.600 5.533 29.590 140.900 29.780 140.833 6.800 29.840 141.533 7.000 29.830 142.567 6.767 29.947 143.400 6.200 29.990 144.700 5.633 30.107 145.633 5.533 30.220 146.600 5.567 30.307 146.467 5.533 30.380 147.267 5.767 30.477 148.800 5.733 30.533 150.167 5.500 30,720 151.700 5.567 30.803 153.167 30.930 154.167 5.467 5.200 30.980 155.233 5.000 31,050 157.767 4.967 31.193 1.99.833 4.900 31.290 161.033 4.667 31.490 161.967 4.367 31.583 163.833 4.100 31.750 166.833 3.867 32.047 169.733 3.833 32.337 171.567 3.767 32.617 171.033 3.700 32.883 171.533 3.833 32.967 173.233 3.833 33.167 175.633 3.800 33.500 179.500 3.900 33.867 182.433 3.733 34.200 184.833 3.567 34.533 188.000 3.533 35.000 191.667 3.400 35.433 195.800 3.400 35.867 199.333 3.433 36.433 200.933 3.567 36.933 201.833 3.567 37.500 203.467 4.167 38.100 205.633 4.767 38.633 207.167 5.167 39.033 209.900 5.833 39.600 213.667 5.933 39.933 217.233 5.900 40.300 221.833 6.033 40.700 225.667 5.933 41.000 227.767 5.767 41.333 232 233 5.700 41.600 236.033 5.567 41.933 240.967 5.367 42.367 246.867 4933 43.033 251.800 4.933 43.933 254.767 4. Use the entire data set in developing your forecast for 2022 Quarter 2 through 2023 Quarter 1. To save time, consider only the following possible forecasting models: Simple Exponential Smoothing Model with a = 0.90 Holt Exponential Smoothing Model with a = 0.90 and B = 0.10 Again, provide your work on calculating the within RMSE values and the actual forecast. (10 points) 5. Compare your results for the two polynomial forecasting questions (questions 2 and 3). Does changing the time period used make a difference in RMSE values? If you look at a graph of the data, do your comparative results make sense? (5 points) 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 4 13397,002 113478.152 2 13538.072 3 13559,032 4 13634.253 113751.543 2 13985,073 3 14145.645 4 14221.147 114329.523 2 14464984 3 14609.876 4 14771./602 114839.782 2 14972.054 3 15066.597 4 15267.026 1 15302.705 2 15326.368 3 15456.928 4 15493.328 1 15582.085 15666.738 2 3 15761.967 4 15671.383 115752.308 2 15667,032 3 15328.027 4 15155.940 1 15134.117 2 15189.222 3 15356.058 4 15415,145 115557.277 2 15671.967 3 15750.625 4 15712.754 115825.096 2 15820.700 3 16004.107 4 16129.418) 116198.807 2 16220.667 3 16239.138 4 16382.964 1 16403.180 2 16531,685 3 16663.649 4 16621.696 116830.111 2 17033.572 3 17113.945 4 17254,744 117397,029 2 17438.802 3 17456.225 4 17523.374 1 17622.486 2 17706.705 3 17784.185 4 17863,023 1 17995.150 2 18120.843 3 18223.758 4 18323.963 118511.576 *** 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213. 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 www 5.700 178067 1191.500 5.833 179.467 1189.767 5.733 180.433 1194,100 5,867 181.500 1211,233 5.867 183.367 1235.000 6.133 183.067 1266.533 6.133 184,433 1293.633 5.833 185.133 1301.033 5.700 156.700 1318.933 5.600 188.167 1336.100 5.433 189.367 1352.267 5.433 191.400 1370.900 5.300 192.367 1370.267 5.100 193.667 1367.833 4.967 196.600 1374.433 4.967 198433 1375.800 4.733 199.467 1381.533 4.633 201.267 1380.867 4.633 203.167 1368.567 4433 202.333 1369,400 4.500 204.317 1368.867 4.500 206.631 1375.167 4,667 207.939 1372.900 4.800 210.490 1375.100 5.000 212.770 1384.500 5.333 215.538 1395.833 6.000 218.861 1428.133 6.867 213.849 1530.300 8.267 212.378 1579.300 9.300 213.507 1628.533 9.633 215.344 1660.000 9.913 217030 1684.533 9.833 217.374 1698.333 9.633 217.297 1712.967 9.467 217.934 1744.200 9.500 219.699 1815.067 9,033 222.044 1875.033 9.067 224.568 1931.200 9.000 226.033 2079.033 8.633 227.047 2156.600 8.267 228.326 2215.733 8.200 228.808 2260.367 8.033 229.841 2351.000 7.800 231.369 2435.233 7.733 232.299 2476.633 7.533 232.045 2525.733 7.233 233.300 2559.767 6.933 234.163 2636.767 6.667 235.608 2727.167 6.233 236.839 2801.367 6.100 237.459 2834.133 5.700 236.920 2897.533 5.567 235.355 2984.600 5400 236.912 3003.133 5.100 237,816 3035.233 5,000 237.888 3063.967 4.913 237.848 3131.067 4.867 239.452 3231.567 4.933 240 548 3296.700 4.733 242.177 3342.467 4,667 243.949 3411.500 4.333 244010 3483,433 4.300 245.297 3552.767 4.100 247.301 3598.967 4.100 249.442 3641.900 3.900 250,468 3657.567 1994 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 1 9392.251 2 9398.499 3 9312.937 4 9269.367 1 9341.642 2 9388.845 3 9421.565 4 9534.346 1 9637.732 2 9732.979 3 9834.510 4 9850,973 1 9908.347 9955.641 3 10091.049 4 10188.954 1 10327.019 2 10387.382 3 10506,372 4 10543.644 110575.100 2 10665.060 3 10737.478 4 10817,896 1 10998.322 2 11096.976 3 11212.205 4 11284,587 1 11472.137 2 11615.636 3 11715,393 4 11832.486 1 11942.032 2 12091.614 3 12287.000 4 12403.293 112498.694 2 12662.385 3 12877.593 4 12924.179 113160.842 2 13178.419 3 13260.506 4 13222.690 113299,984 2 13244.784 3 13280.859 4 13397.002 113478.152 2 13538.072 3 13559.032 4 13634.253 113751.543 2 13985.073 3 14145.645 4 14221.147 114329.523 214464.984 314609,876 4 14771.602 1 14839,782 2 14972.054 3 15066.597 4 15267.026 1 15302.705 2 15326.368 1 15456 028 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 5.333 129,300 806,367 5.700 131.533 815.333 6.133 133.767 822.233 6.600 134,767 832.833 6.833 135.567 849.533 6.867 136,600 866.033 7.100 137.733 887.533 7.367 138.667 924,100 7.600 139.733 949.567 7.633 140.800 975.000 7.367 142.033 1014,767 7.133 143,067 1034.100 7.067 144.100 1062.867 6.800 144.767 1094.333 6.633 145.967 1122.267 6.567 146.700 1136,000 6.200 147.533 1143.200 6.000 148.900 1151.067 5.633 149,767 1150.600 5.467 150.867 1148.500 5.667 152.100 1146.267 5.667 152.867 1144.300 5.567 153.700 1132.967 5.533 155.067 1121.533 5.500 156,400 1118,833 5.267 157.300 1103.400 5.333 158.667 1083.500 5.233 159.633 1077.500 5.000 160.000 1064.600 4.867 160.800 1069.233 4.667 161.667 1069.600 4.633 162.000 1076.233 4.400 162.533 1077,300 4.533 163.367 1076.967 4.433 164,133 1091.967 4.300 164.733 1097.133 4.267 165.967 1101.733 4.233 167.200 1098.267 4.067 168,433 1112,067 4.033 170.100 1112.767 3.933 171.433 1107.733 4.000 173.000 1101.133 3.900 174.233 1093.233 4.233 175.900 1102.300 4400 177,133 1120467 4.833 177.633 1164.867 5.500 177.500 1173.233 5.700 178.067 1191.500 5.833 179.467 1189.767 5.733 180.433 1194.100 5.867 181.500 1211,233 5.867 183.367 1235.000 6.133 183,067 1266.533 6.133 184,433 1293,633 5.833 185.133 1301,033 5.700 186.700 1318.933 5.600 188.167 1336.100 5.433 189.367) 1352.267 5.433 191.400 1370,900 5.300 192.367 1370.267 5.100 193.667 1367.833 4.967 196.600 1374433 4.967 198.433 4.733 199.467 1375.8007 1381.533 4.633 201.267 1380,867 4.633 203.167 1368.567 4411 202 331 1369400 RGDP UR: CPL MI: TREND: YEAR 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1964 1964 1965 1963 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1966 1967 1967 1967 1967 1968 1968 1968 1968 1969 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1974 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977 QTR 1 Real GDP in 2012 dollars millions of dollars) Civilian Unemployment Rate (percent) Consumer Price Index MI Money Supply (millions of dollars) Trend(observationer) RGDP TREND UR CPI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3192.380 2 3194.653 3 3203.759 4 3275.757 1 3258.088 2 3274.029 3 3232.009 4 3253.826 3309.059 2 3372.581 3 3438.721 4 3500.054 1 3531.683 2 3575.070 3 3586.827 4 3625.981 1 3666.669 2 3747.278 3 3771.845 4 3851.366 1 3893.296 2 3954.121 3 3966.335 4 4062.311 1 4113.629 2 4205.086 3 4301.973 4 4406 693 1 4421.747 2 4459.195 3 4495.777 4 4535.591 1 4538.370 2 4581.309 3 4615.853 4 4709.993 1 4788.688 2 4825.799 3 4844.779 4 4920.605 1 4935.564 2 4968.164 3 4943.935 4 4936.594 1 4943.600 4989.159 3 4935.693 4 5069.746 1 5097.179 2 5139.128 3 5151.245 4 5245.974 1 5365.045 2 5415.712 3 5506.396 4 5642.669 5704.098 I T 8 6 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 22AAAAAAAAAARRRRAA 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 TORREGRIRA 49 50 15 53 54 55 57 MI 5.100 29.043 140.533 5.267 29.193 141.533 5.600 29.370 140 267 5.133 29.397 139.900 5.233 29.573 139.600 5.533 29.590 140.900 29.780 140.833 6.800 29.840 141.533 7.000 29.830 142.567 6.767 29.947 143.400 6.200 29.990 144.700 5.633 30.107 145.633 5.533 30.220 146.600 5.567 30.307 146.467 5.533 30.380 147.267 5.767 30.477 148.800 5.733 30.533 150.167 5.500 30,720 151.700 5.567 30.803 153.167 30.930 154.167 5.467 5.200 30.980 155.233 5.000 31,050 157.767 4.967 31.193 1.99.833 4.900 31.290 161.033 4.667 31.490 161.967 4.367 31.583 163.833 4.100 31.750 166.833 3.867 32.047 169.733 3.833 32.337 171.567 3.767 32.617 171.033 3.700 32.883 171.533 3.833 32.967 173.233 3.833 33.167 175.633 3.800 33.500 179.500 3.900 33.867 182.433 3.733 34.200 184.833 3.567 34.533 188.000 3.533 35.000 191.667 3.400 35.433 195.800 3.400 35.867 199.333 3.433 36.433 200.933 3.567 36.933 201.833 3.567 37.500 203.467 4.167 38.100 205.633 4.767 38.633 207.167 5.167 39.033 209.900 5.833 39.600 213.667 5.933 39.933 217.233 5.900 40.300 221.833 6.033 40.700 225.667 5.933 41.000 227.767 5.767 41.333 232 233 5.700 41.600 236.033 5.567 41.933 240.967 5.367 42.367 246.867 4933 43.033 251.800 4.933 43.933 254.767
