Question
Use the following dataset for Q1-3: Google.csv contains daily returns of Google in 2018. Q1. Assume that we are interested in the number of days
Use the following dataset for Q1-3: "Google.csv" contains daily returns of Google in 2018.
Q1. Assume that we are interested in the number of days that the Google stock was up (relative to the previous day) over 10 trading days.
a) What is the probability that the Google stock will be up more than 10 days in the next 25 days?
b) What is the probability that the Google stock will be up at most 5 days in the next 15 days?
c) Compute the mean and the standard deviation of the number of days the Google stock will be up in the next 10 days.
d) Compute the probability that the Google stock will be up within one standard deviation of its mean, (()()+)=?
d) Plot the estimated probability distribution against the empirical distribution (actual data). Do you think the model provides a reasonable fit to data?
Q2. Assume now that you are interested in modeling the number of days that the Google stock will be down before it goes up (note that we can assume that a stock going down would potentially include staying the same).
a) What is the probability that the Google stock will be down more than 2 days before it goes up?
b) What is the probability that the Google stock will be down at most 5 days before it goes up?
c) Compute the mean and the standard deviation of the number of days the Google stock will be down before it goes up.
d) Plot the estimated probability distribution.
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