Question
Using Exhibit 9a & 9b (Consolidated PBB) & information in the case on valuation find the following: D. Stage/Phase 1 - PBB PV (@ R
Using Exhibit 9a & 9b (Consolidated PBB) & information in the case on valuation find the following:
D. Stage/Phase 1 - PBB PV (@ R = ______%, C. above from Jan-96) _________
Using Exhibit 10 (Polisur 2 Poly Plants) & information in the case on valuation find the following:
E. Stage/Phase 2 - Polisur PV (@ R = ______%, C. above from Jan-96) _________
(Note: In D. & E. above, the calculation is PV rather than NPV, as cost, CF0, or the estimate of the projects value is being determined.)
Based on your results from parts D. and E., what would you bid for Phase 1 and Phase 2?
F. Stage/Phase 1 - PBB Bid ($) _________
G. Stage/Phase 2 - Polisur Bid ($) _________
Exhibit 9b (continued) STAGE 1: PBB POLYETHYLENE PLANT : 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL REVENUE 74.5 61.5 66.7 95.2 87.9 96.3 110.4 126.7 110.2 96.8 90.1 93.1 100.9 111.2 121.5 112.4 0.273 0.219 0.250 0.220 0.190 0.222 0.285 0.358 0.297 0.247 0.218 0.229 0.261 0.304 0.346 0.306 COSTS Ethylene International Net Price US$/b (from Figure 9a) Ethylene ratio (volume of ethylene consumed per Ib.of polyethylene) Polyethylene Total Volume Production (MM lbs) Ethylene cost 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 131.8 131.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 131.8 29.1 202.8 60.7 202.8 50.5 36.2 33.2 45.0 38.9 45.4 58.2 73.1 44.5 46.8 53.4 62.0 70.7 62.5 11.1 Other variable costs (10% of sales) Total variable costs 7.4 43.7 6.1 35.2 6.7 39.9 9.5 54.5 8.8 47.7 9.6 55.0 11.0 69.2 12.7 85.8 11.0 71.8 9.7 60.2 9.0 53.5 9.3 56.1 10.1 63.4 12.1 82.8 11.2 73.7 73.1 7.3 Total fixed costs Depreciation 10.6 8.8 13.6 9.1 9.0 9.9 6.8 10.6 6.9 10.9 6.4 11.2 5.S 11.5 6.1 11.6 6.3 11.7 6.5 11.9 6.7 3.2 6.9 3.1 7.1 2.5 1.9 7.6 1.7 7.8 1.6 PROFIT BEFORE TAX 11.4 3.6 8.0 23.3 22.4 23.6 23.8 23.2 20.5 18.2 26.7 27.0 27.9 28.8 29.3 29.2 Tax (31% until 1999, then 36%) 3.5 1.1 2.5 7.2 6.9 8.5 8.6 8.4 7.4 6.6 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.5 PROFIT AFTER TAX 7.8 2.5 5.5 16.1 15.5 15.1 152 14.9 13.1 11.7 17.1 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.8 18.7 8.8 9.1 9.9 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 3.2 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 Plus: Depreciation Less: Change in working capital (20% of sales) Less: Investments 14.9 2.6 2.6 (1.0) 8.2 (5.7) 7.3 1.5 3.1 (1.7) 6.8 (2.8) 7.5 (3.3) 1.3 3.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 (0.6) 1.5 (1.6) 1.6 (2.1) 1.6 (2.1) 1.7 1.8 1.7 CASH FLOW POLYETHYLENE - Stage 1 1 1.7 6.4 8.2 25.1 21.8 21.2 22.0 28.4 20.1 19.4 17.5 19.4 20.3 20.8 20.9 16.7 CONSOLIDATED PBB CASH FLOWS- STAGE 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cash flow ethylene Cash flow polyethylene TOTAL CASH FLOW - STAGE 1 113.4 1.7 115.2 23.8 6.4 (20.6) 8.2 (12.4) 29.7 25.1 54.7 31.1 21.8 52.9 35.6 21.2 56.7 58.9 22.0 83.4 28.4 111.8 64.2 20.1 84.3 43,6 19.4 63.1 28.7 17.5 46.2 29.4 19.4 48.9 36.2 20.3 56.5 50.6 20.8 71.4 65.7 20.9 86.6 53.4 16.7 70.1 30.1 80.9 Exhibit 10 (continued) STAGE 2: POLISUR- TWO POLYETHYLENE PLANTS 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL REVENUE 222.3 213.3 232.3 215.8 199.8 219.4 251.9 289.1 251.6 220.9 205.7 212.4 230.3 253.8 277.3 256.5 0.273 0.219 0.250 0.220 0.190 0.222 0.285 0.358 0.297 0.247 0.218 0.229 0.261 0,304 0.346 0.306 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 COSTS Ethylene International Price (US$/be) Ethylene ratio (volume of ethylene consumed per lb.of polyethylene) Polyethylene Total Volume Production (MM Tbs) Ethylene cost 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 397,8 106.3 463.0 99.2 463.0 99.8 463.0 112.1 463.0 118.4 463.0 137.6 463.0 156.8 113.5 86.3 100.8 129.1 162.2 134.8 98.7 103.9 138.7 Other variable costs Total variable costs 25.6 131.9 31.1 130.3 32.9 146.4 31.1 130.9 32.1 118.4 33.1 133.9 33.9 163.0 34.7 196.9 36.1 170.9 37.7 149.8 39.1 137.8 40.3 144.2 41.5 159.9 42.7 180.3 43.9 200.7 45.4 184.1 17.4 18.7 Total fixed costs Depreciation 15.1 2.1 15.1 4.3 15.5 4.9 15.9 5.6 16.3 6.4 20.1 16.6 7.1 17.0 4.4 17.8 6.5 18.3 7.1 19.2 8.3 19.6 9.0 20.6 6.9 21.1 7.0 5.9 7.7 6.8 PROFIT BEFORE TAX 73.1 63.5 65,4 63.3 58.8 61.7 67.5 68.8 56.3 45.7 41.5 40.7 41.8 46.6 49.1 44.2 Tax (31% until 1999, then 36%) (, 22.7 19.7 20.3 19.6 18.2 22.2 24.3 24.8 20.3 16.5 14.9 14.7 15.0 16.8 17.7 15.9 PROFIT AFTER TAX 50.5 43.8 45.2 43.7 40.6 39.5 43.2 44.1 36.1 29.3 26,5 26.1 26.8 29.8 31.4 28.3 2.1 4.3 4.9 5.6 6.4 7.1 4.4 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.3 9.0 6.8 6.9 7.0 Plus: Depreciation Less: Change in working capital (20% of sales) Less: Investments 44.5 (1.8) 10.1 3.8 6.8 (3.3) 7.0 (3.2) 7.3 3.9 14.6 6.5 15.4 7.4 5.5 (7.5) 5.7 (6.1) 5.9 (3.0) 6.1 1.3 6.3 3.6 6.4 4.7 6.6 4.7 6.7 (42) 6.9 CASH FLOW POLYETHYLENE Stage 2 8.1 39.8 39.5 45.6 42.8 28.2 25.7 37.0 44.3 36.6 31.2 26.8 25.7 25.3 26.9 32.6 Source: Dow Quimica Argentina S.A. Exhibit 9b (continued) STAGE 1: PBB POLYETHYLENE PLANT : 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL REVENUE 74.5 61.5 66.7 95.2 87.9 96.3 110.4 126.7 110.2 96.8 90.1 93.1 100.9 111.2 121.5 112.4 0.273 0.219 0.250 0.220 0.190 0.222 0.285 0.358 0.297 0.247 0.218 0.229 0.261 0.304 0.346 0.306 COSTS Ethylene International Net Price US$/b (from Figure 9a) Ethylene ratio (volume of ethylene consumed per Ib.of polyethylene) Polyethylene Total Volume Production (MM lbs) Ethylene cost 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 131.8 131.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 202.8 131.8 29.1 202.8 60.7 202.8 50.5 36.2 33.2 45.0 38.9 45.4 58.2 73.1 44.5 46.8 53.4 62.0 70.7 62.5 11.1 Other variable costs (10% of sales) Total variable costs 7.4 43.7 6.1 35.2 6.7 39.9 9.5 54.5 8.8 47.7 9.6 55.0 11.0 69.2 12.7 85.8 11.0 71.8 9.7 60.2 9.0 53.5 9.3 56.1 10.1 63.4 12.1 82.8 11.2 73.7 73.1 7.3 Total fixed costs Depreciation 10.6 8.8 13.6 9.1 9.0 9.9 6.8 10.6 6.9 10.9 6.4 11.2 5.S 11.5 6.1 11.6 6.3 11.7 6.5 11.9 6.7 3.2 6.9 3.1 7.1 2.5 1.9 7.6 1.7 7.8 1.6 PROFIT BEFORE TAX 11.4 3.6 8.0 23.3 22.4 23.6 23.8 23.2 20.5 18.2 26.7 27.0 27.9 28.8 29.3 29.2 Tax (31% until 1999, then 36%) 3.5 1.1 2.5 7.2 6.9 8.5 8.6 8.4 7.4 6.6 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.5 PROFIT AFTER TAX 7.8 2.5 5.5 16.1 15.5 15.1 152 14.9 13.1 11.7 17.1 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.8 18.7 8.8 9.1 9.9 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 3.2 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 Plus: Depreciation Less: Change in working capital (20% of sales) Less: Investments 14.9 2.6 2.6 (1.0) 8.2 (5.7) 7.3 1.5 3.1 (1.7) 6.8 (2.8) 7.5 (3.3) 1.3 3.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 (0.6) 1.5 (1.6) 1.6 (2.1) 1.6 (2.1) 1.7 1.8 1.7 CASH FLOW POLYETHYLENE - Stage 1 1 1.7 6.4 8.2 25.1 21.8 21.2 22.0 28.4 20.1 19.4 17.5 19.4 20.3 20.8 20.9 16.7 CONSOLIDATED PBB CASH FLOWS- STAGE 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cash flow ethylene Cash flow polyethylene TOTAL CASH FLOW - STAGE 1 113.4 1.7 115.2 23.8 6.4 (20.6) 8.2 (12.4) 29.7 25.1 54.7 31.1 21.8 52.9 35.6 21.2 56.7 58.9 22.0 83.4 28.4 111.8 64.2 20.1 84.3 43,6 19.4 63.1 28.7 17.5 46.2 29.4 19.4 48.9 36.2 20.3 56.5 50.6 20.8 71.4 65.7 20.9 86.6 53.4 16.7 70.1 30.1 80.9 Exhibit 10 (continued) STAGE 2: POLISUR- TWO POLYETHYLENE PLANTS 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL REVENUE 222.3 213.3 232.3 215.8 199.8 219.4 251.9 289.1 251.6 220.9 205.7 212.4 230.3 253.8 277.3 256.5 0.273 0.219 0.250 0.220 0.190 0.222 0.285 0.358 0.297 0.247 0.218 0.229 0.261 0,304 0.346 0.306 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 COSTS Ethylene International Price (US$/be) Ethylene ratio (volume of ethylene consumed per lb.of polyethylene) Polyethylene Total Volume Production (MM Tbs) Ethylene cost 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.979 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 463.0 397,8 106.3 463.0 99.2 463.0 99.8 463.0 112.1 463.0 118.4 463.0 137.6 463.0 156.8 113.5 86.3 100.8 129.1 162.2 134.8 98.7 103.9 138.7 Other variable costs Total variable costs 25.6 131.9 31.1 130.3 32.9 146.4 31.1 130.9 32.1 118.4 33.1 133.9 33.9 163.0 34.7 196.9 36.1 170.9 37.7 149.8 39.1 137.8 40.3 144.2 41.5 159.9 42.7 180.3 43.9 200.7 45.4 184.1 17.4 18.7 Total fixed costs Depreciation 15.1 2.1 15.1 4.3 15.5 4.9 15.9 5.6 16.3 6.4 20.1 16.6 7.1 17.0 4.4 17.8 6.5 18.3 7.1 19.2 8.3 19.6 9.0 20.6 6.9 21.1 7.0 5.9 7.7 6.8 PROFIT BEFORE TAX 73.1 63.5 65,4 63.3 58.8 61.7 67.5 68.8 56.3 45.7 41.5 40.7 41.8 46.6 49.1 44.2 Tax (31% until 1999, then 36%) (, 22.7 19.7 20.3 19.6 18.2 22.2 24.3 24.8 20.3 16.5 14.9 14.7 15.0 16.8 17.7 15.9 PROFIT AFTER TAX 50.5 43.8 45.2 43.7 40.6 39.5 43.2 44.1 36.1 29.3 26,5 26.1 26.8 29.8 31.4 28.3 2.1 4.3 4.9 5.6 6.4 7.1 4.4 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.3 9.0 6.8 6.9 7.0 Plus: Depreciation Less: Change in working capital (20% of sales) Less: Investments 44.5 (1.8) 10.1 3.8 6.8 (3.3) 7.0 (3.2) 7.3 3.9 14.6 6.5 15.4 7.4 5.5 (7.5) 5.7 (6.1) 5.9 (3.0) 6.1 1.3 6.3 3.6 6.4 4.7 6.6 4.7 6.7 (42) 6.9 CASH FLOW POLYETHYLENE Stage 2 8.1 39.8 39.5 45.6 42.8 28.2 25.7 37.0 44.3 36.6 31.2 26.8 25.7 25.3 26.9 32.6 Source: Dow Quimica Argentina S.A
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