USING MICROSOFT EXCEL WORKBOOK

1. For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are:

80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83. a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b) Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a. ? = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? c) What is the forecast for next month?

2. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Office on Smoking and Health (OSH) is the lead federal agency responsible for comprehensive tobacco prevention and control. OSH was established in 1965 to reduce the death and disease caused by tobacco use and exposure to secondhand smoke. One of the many responsibilities of the OSH is to collect data on tobacco use. The following data show the percentage of U.S. adults who were users of tobacco for a recent 11-year period.

Year Percentage of Adults Who Smoke 22.8 2 22.5 3 21.6 4 20.9 20.9 6 20.8 19.8 20.6 20.6 10 19.3 11 18.9