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Using that stream of data and the same assumptions about handling the smoothed and trending portions of the early periods of the data stream, optimize
Using thatstreamof dataand the same assumptions about handling the smoothed and trending portions of the early periods of the data stream,optimize the forecast by sequentially: finding the alphato the nearest increment ofthat produces the lowest Se thenholding that alpha constant,and finding the betato the nearestwhich provides the overall lowest SeRememberwhen changing alpha or beta using this model,you must change the entire column, notjust one row at a time.
What were the final optimal alphas and betas?
What is the eventual lowest forecast error using this process?
How might you proceed to find a forecast with even lower error?
What is the point estimate for the next unknown period?What is theconfidenceinterval estimate?
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