Using the FINANCIAL worksheet, do a five-year projection for Dells Executive PC using market shares obtained from PERCEPTOR, Current market share analysis- Seg 1 = 15.96%; Seg 2 = 26.93%; Seg 3 = 19.03%; total market share =22.37%.

The Computer Industry

The market for personal computers has been growing rapidly for several years with little end in sight. As of the end of the year 2000, approximately 120 million PCs were sold worldwide. Projections for the next five years of industry sales are as shown below:

Year	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Market Size (in millions)	136	152	168	184	200

Competition

The PC industry has four major competitors: IBM, Dell, Compaq, and Hewlett-Packard (HP). All four make and sell competitive mid-range performance PCs, with the typical configuration for home or small business use costing approximately $1000. Dells variable costs per unit total about $800, and it is believed that competitors face a similar variable cost structure. The Executive would be priced competitively, at about the same price level of $1000.

A recent study of the home/small-business PC market found that most customers considered two important non-price attributes when selecting a PC, flexibility and performance. Flexibility refers in this situation to a PCs ability to run several different kinds of software, to be easily connected to printers and other peripherals, suitability for business as well as educational or game use, and so forth. Performance, by contrast, referred to speed of internet connection and internal calculations, support of the highest-end software programs, and reliability and accuracy of calculations (the study was done soon after the infamous Pentium bug was found, which caused a very small percentage of numerical calculations to be slightly wrong). Using familiar customer survey methods, the consultants conducting the study found the perceived positions of each of the four major brands on the two key non-price attributes. In the same survey, customer preferences were also gathered, and these were used to identify ideal brands and assess the number and size of customer benefit segments in the marketplace. Three segments were identified. Segment 1 (about 20% of the market) prefers highly flexible PCs, Segment 2 (about 50% of the market) likes high-performance machines, and Segment 3 (about 30% of the market) values a combination of the two attributes. The results of the study are summarized below.

	Attribute 1 (Performance)	Attribute 2 (Flexibility)	Size of Segment Relative to Market
Ideal Brands by Segment
Segment 1	-0.5	3	0.2
Segment 2	2	-1	0.5
Segment 3	1.5	1.5	0.3
Brand Positions
Dell	1	-1
IBM	2	-1.5
HP	1	3
Compaq	0.5	0.5

Dells Marketing Budget

As its product line has expanded and competition has continued to be fierce, Dell has allocated significant budgets to both advertising and distribution. Considering first its distribution policies, Dell uses two principal channels. First is the lower-end channel, used to target PC users who need simple, stand-alone solutions to their PC needs. These users include a large number of both home users and small businesses, and are primarily targeted through superstores and discount clubs as well as through on-line shopping. Users with more complex needs are targeted via specialty computer stores that can provide more high-touch customer solutions. This target group also comprises both home and business customers.

If Dell is to launch its new Executive PC, the extensive, multiple distribution channel arrangement is expected to cost in the order of $500 million yearly. The advertising budget is similarly in the range of about $500 million as extensive consumer advertising across multiple media and vehicles is complemented with substantial trade advertising to all dealer sizes and types. In preparation for a financial analysis, Dells consultants developed the following set of estimates regarding the impacts of the advertising and distributional expenditures on Executive PC sales. Note: in this durable-goods context, certain terms need to be redefined carefully. Switching refers to a current non-Dell user switching to a Dell Executive PC the next time he or she purchases a PC, and repurchasing refers to a current Dell user purchasing a Dell Executive. Note also that sales promotions such as coupons are irrelevant for this particular firm, so sales promotion budget should be left at zero and the probability of trying a received sample line should be ignored, as it has no effect on the calculations.

Long-Run Trial Probability (F)	0.7
Prob. of Trying a Received Sample (U)	0
Prob. of Switching to New Brand (Qkz)	0.8
Prob. of Repurchasing New Brand (Qzz)	0.8

Financial Evaluation of the Executive PC

Dell wants to do a financial analysis of the Executive PC to assess the proposed new products value. Much of the information presented or calculated above can be used in making this assessment, though the consultant team had to estimate some additional figures with the help of top management. Estimates and managerial input useful for the financial analysis include the following:

Fixed (indirect) production costs = $100,000,000 yearly.

Corporate overheads (exclusive of R&D) charged to the new product = $100,000,000 yearly.

R&D to be charged to the new product: 2% of dollar sales, beginning in Year 1.

Cannibalization: negligible.

Project abandonment: negligible.

Tax rate: 34%, with no applicable tax credits.

Cost of capital: 15%.

Working capital:

Cash as percent of sales: 10%.

Inventory as percent of sales: 10%.

Accounts Receivable as percent of sales: 15%.

Working capital recovery in Year 5:

Percent of cash: 100%.

Percent of inventory: 80%.

Percent of accounts receivable: 100%.

Investment in production facilities: one-time-only $100,000,000 charge in Year 0 (now), depreciated over five years using the straight line method.