Using the info posted below: Explain the problem of population growth. How does it affect the planet? What are the policies that have been implemented to deal with this problem? What about population and geopolitics? Provide examples from the information below.

Population and Resources

During this class we will explore population and resources including the challenges of feeding a growing population and how this affects the global environment. In contrast, during this week's discussion, we will explore why countries with larger populations have greater geopolitical power.

According to the scientific community, the planet does not have infinite resources. In fact, the planet has what scientists called a limited "carrying capacity." Carrying capacity is the maximum level of population that the world's resources and environment can sustain. The theory was first discussed by Thomas Malthus in 1789, who argued that "population growth would soon outstrip food supply, leading to social and economic chaos" (Palmer et al. 2001). The theory was later discredited due to the industrial revolution and the rapid production of goods.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4UB2HLJVKE ( Watch population growth of top 20 countries- 1960~2020)

The principle of carrying capacity was brought to light again in the 1960s because during this decade, population grew at a world average of 2 % per year ( highest percentage recorded since 1750). The Club of Rome (1968) argued that while food was a renewable resource (because we can figure out how to increase food production), more problematic was the consumption of non-renewable resources, such as oil, coal, and other sources of energy.

There was, according to the Club of Rome, a limit on the planet's carrying capacity. In 1972, Meadows et al. wrote the book "The Limits to Growth," which was commissioned by the Club of Rome. The book re-asserted the principle of carrying capacity. http://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan- version.pdf

How is population growth measured? Population growth is the ratio between crude birth rate ( the number of people born per 1,000), and crude death rates ( the number of people dying per 1,000). Between WWII and 2015, the population has almost tripled. From 2.5 billion in 1945 to 8 billion in 2023. https://www.census.gov/popclock/

Trends in Population Growth

According to Jeffrey Sachs (Columbia University), population growth could reach unsustainable levels within this century. Please, watch the short clip below. It is from 2011, but still very relevant! http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/17/opinion/sachs-global-population/ Problems: A- Most of the population growth occurs in the developing world. B- But most of the consumption occurs in advanced economies. Current levels of consumption cannot be maintained ( see slides 18-22) .According to Jeffrey Sachs (Columbia University), population growth could reach unsustainable levels within this century. Please, watch the short clip below. It is from 2011, but still very relevant! http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/17/opinion/sachs-global-population/ Problems: A- Most of the population growth occurs in the developing world. B- But most of the consumption occurs in advanced economies. Current levels of consumption cannot be maintained ( see slides 18-22) .

One of the main problems is explained by Garret Hardin's "Tragedy of the (global) Commons," https://www.britannica.com/science/tragedy-of- the-commons Solutions: A- Government regulations through family planning, or limiting fertility rates. Example: China and the (former) "one child" policy (see next slides) Read also Garrett Hardin's radical solution (link below), where he argues: "the only way we can preserve and nurture other and more precious freedoms is by relinquishing the freedom to breed... "Freedom is the recognition of necessity"--and it is the role of education to reveal to all the necessity of abandoning the freedom to breed." http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons. html

China's population had reached over 800 million and was growing at 2.8 % per year by the 1970s. How did the Communist Party deal with the problem of population growth? Starting in the 1980s, the government enforced a stringent population control policy that included positive incentives (more farmland or preferred housing to couples with one child), and negative ones (very large fines or demotions) for couples with more than one child.

Policy worked: currently there is only 0.26 % population growth. The government claimed that this policy helped the country achieve 400 million fewer births during the 1980-2010 period (BBC, 2012). However, this policy also led to extensive use of abortion (particularly feticide of girls - up to 13 million a year ) and an increasing sex-ratio imbalance (118 males/100 females on average according to the 2010 census).

ONE-CHILD POLICY AND AGING Furthermore, the one-child policy led to an increasingly aging population. In 2007 there were six adults of working age for every retiree, but by 2040 that ratio is expected to drop to 2 to 1. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1912861,00.html As a result, China relaxed its one-child policy, and now families are allowed to have two children in 2016. And in 2020, after a new census showed the birth rate had not increased, China raised the cap to three children. But many are still choosing not to have more than one child ( too expensive!) https://www.npr.org/2021/06/21/1008656293/the-legacy-of-the-lasting-effects-of- chinas-1-child-policy In addition, gender imbalance has made it difficult for men to find a date! Please, watch the short video below ( funny but sad too): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEk5-MAKlHE (love and rockets= 12 minutes)

B- Most would rather tackle the problem through less coercive means. Education generally decreases fertility rates in poor countries and instills a sense of awareness for both the rich and the poor. C. Interestingly, lower fertility rates throughout the world may curve population growth naturally. See: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521 Indeed, researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century. But can the planet maintain 9 billion people without reversing current consumption levels? See next slides...

Throughout human existence we have relied on oceans for many things: food, medicine, and economic opportunities, among many others. However, the world's oceans have suffered greatly as a result of population growth. These include: Pollution: Much of the waste we produce on land eventually reaches the oceans, either through deliberate dumping or from the run-off of drains and rivers. Plastic has been one of the main culprits. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/plastic-pollution Overfishing: Marine fish provide 15 percent of all animal protein consumed by humans. Under this intense pressure 15 percent of 7.5 billion people (and growing), global fisheries are strained or outright collapsing. https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/oceans/index.html

Warming Temperatures: due to climate change ( we'll discuss this topic later in the semester), the oceans are absorbing more heat and carbon dioxide, making waters warmer and more acidic; climate change also causes deoxygenation and changes in ocean currents. When the oceans are warmer, plants and animals that live in the waters must adapt, or they are at risk of dying. https://www.msc.org/en-us/what-we-are-doing/oceans-at-risk/climate-change-and- fishing?gclid=CjwKCAjwtdeFBhBAEiwAKOIy5ysQieoHMOoC- YWXkb97egFAiYaLIryQD9GH7OvOa-T8YYfKAQvFNhoCqtAQAvD_BwE See for example, scientists' race to save coral reefs in Florida: https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/heres-what-you-can-do-to-keep-floridas-coral-reefs- alive/

The global community now faces a "crisis in land use and agriculture that could undermine the health, security, and sustainability of our civilization," according to Professor Jonathan Foley. Foley argues that in order to meet the agricultural needs of a growing global population, countries must meet growing food production needs. "Already, we have cleared or converted more than 35 percent of the earth's ice-free land surface for agriculture, whether for croplands, pastures or range lands. In fact, the area used for agriculture is nearly 60 times larger than the area of all of the world's cities and suburbs. Since the last ice age, nothing has been more disruptive to the planet's ecosystems than agriculture." Agriculture puts pressure on land and also on water's systems ( since it needs irrigation). Agriculture, particularly the use of chemicals, also leads to pollution of the soil. Watch his TED talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJhgGbRA6Hk

More than half of the world's population is living in cities today and the rate of urbanization is increasing at 1.5 percent annually. Indeed, by 2050, 68% of the population is expected to live in cities, according to the UN. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018- revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html Urbanization coupled with population growth is changing the landscape of human settlement, posing significant risks on living conditions, the environment, and development. According to the UN article above, sustainable development depends increasingly on the successful management of urban growth, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries where the pace of urbanization is projected to be the fastest.More than half of the world's population is living in cities today and the rate of urbanization is increasing at 1.5 percent annually. Indeed, by 2050, 68% of the population is expected to live in cities, according to the UN. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018- revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html Urbanization coupled with population growth is changing the landscape of human settlement, posing significant risks on living conditions, the environment, and development. According to the UN article above, sustainable development depends increasingly on the successful management of urban growth, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries where the pace of urbanization is projected to be the fastest.

Population growth has and will impact the way we live. Oceans and land are some of the "side effects" that population growth can cause on these vital resources. What to do? Consume less or better? According to the website below "Human population growth is at the root of our most pressing environmental issues, yet it's often left out of the conversation. We can fight to curb climate change, stop habitat loss and clean up pollution, but if we don't address our unsustainable population, it'll stay an uphill battle that we can't win. The first step to solving a problem is getting people to talk about it." https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/population/ Another problem is that demographics also drive geopolitics, (more people more power?) as we will discuss on this week's reading, which will also make countries less prone to find solutions to population growth and the environment