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Valuation and the Firm 5. To determine the stock value based on the discounted free cash flow method: a. Forecast the free cash flows. Start

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Valuation and the Firm 5. To determine the stock value based on the discounted free cash flow method: a. Forecast the free cash flows. Start by using the historical data from the financial statements downloaded from Morningstar to compute the three-year average of the following ratios: i. EBIT/sales ii. Tax rate (income tax expense/income before tax) iii. Property plant and equipment/sales iv. Depreciation/property plant and equipment v. Net working capital/sales b. Create an empty timeline for the next five years. c. Forecast future sales based on the most recent year's total revenue growing at the LT growth rate from Reuters for the first five years. d. Use the average ratios computed in part (a) to forecast EBIT, property, plant and equipment, depreciation, and net working capital for the next five years, e. Forecast the free cash flow for the next five years using Eq. 10.2 . f. Determine the horizon enterprise value for year 5 using Eq. 10.6 and a long-run growth rate of 4% and a cost of capital for JNJ of 11%. g. Determine the enterprise value of the firm as the present value of the free cash flows. h. Determine the stock price using Eq. 10.4. Note that your enterprise value is in $ thousands and the number of shares outstanding is in billions. 6. To calculate an estimate of JNJ price based on a comparable P/E ratio, multiply the industry average P/E ratio by JNJ EPS. 7. Compare the stock prices produced by the two methods to the actual stock price. What recommendations can you make as to whether clients should buy or sell JNJ stock based on your price estimates? 8. Explain to your boss why the estimates from the two valuation methods differ. Specifically address the assumptions implicit in the models themselves as well as the assumptions you made in preparing your analysis. Why do these estimates differ from the actual stock price of JNJ

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