Vancouver General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims in the summer.

Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below:

Day Bicycle Victims

1 6

2 8

3 4

4 7

5 9

6 9

7 7

What are the forecasts for days 4 through 8 using a 3-period moving average model? Round the forecasts to two decimal places.

With an alpha value of .4 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the actual data, what are the exponentially smoothed forecasts for days 4 through 8? Round the forecasts to two decimal places.

What is the MAD for the 3-period moving average forecasts for days 4 through 7?   Compare it to the MAD for the exponential smoothing forecasts for days 4 through 7.