Question
We are using the number of passenger cars produced in the United States from 1999 through 2016 to fit different auto-regressive models. The data is
- We are using the number of passenger cars produced in the United States from 1999 through 2016 to fit different auto-regressive models. The data is provided below:
Year | Units Produced (000) |
1999 | 5,577.5 |
2000 | 5,471.0 |
2001 | 4,808.1 |
2002 | 4,957.3 |
2003 | 4,453.6 |
2004 | 4,165.8 |
2005 | 4,265.9 |
2006 | 4,311.5 |
2007 | 3,867.2 |
2008 | 3,731.3 |
2009 | 2,195.6 |
2010 | 2,731.1 |
2011 | 2,977.0 |
2012 | 4,109.0 |
2013 | 4,368.8 |
2014 | 4,253.1 |
2015 | 4,162.8 |
2016 | 3,916.6 |
a. fit a third-order autoregressive model to the number of passenger cars produced in the United States and test for the significance of the third-order autoregressive parameter (slope). (Use a = 0.05.)
b. if necessary, fit a second-order autoregressive model to the number of passenger cars produced in the United States and test for the significance of the second-order autoregressive parameter (slope). (Use a = 0.05.)
c. if necessary, fit a first-order autoregressive model to the number of passenger cars produced in the United States and test for the significance of the first-order autoregressive parameter (slope). (Use a = 0.05.)
d. forecast the U.S. car production for 2017.
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