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We assume that during a quarter, each company invests in promortions either at a regular level or at a blitz level . Depending on the
We assume that during a quarter, each company invests in promortions either at a "regular" level or at a "blitz" level . Depending on the promotional behavior of both companies in a given quarter, the change in our market share from this BlillEf Minimum Most likely Maximum quarter to the next is triangularly distributed, with parameters given in the table. NEitth -395 0% 3% Both 43% 0% 5% For example, if US blitz and THEM don'tr then we could lose as much as 1% Only US 4% 2% 5% market share, we could gain as much as 5% market share, and our most likely Only THEM 43% 2% 1% outcome is an increase of 2% market share. We want to develop a simulation model that allows us to gauge the long-term change in our market share for any pattern of blitzing employed by each company. Setup 20 quarters of competition (1=blitz, D=regular) for the two companies. Assume that there is a 30% chance that l'them\" blitzes and a 25% chance that \"us" blitzes in any given quarter. 1. Calcluate a 90% condence interval for US market share at the end of the 20 quarters. 2. What if US changed their strategy to P(blitz} = 35%? What is the confidence interval then
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