We$$re now in the last week of February $2017$ and we$$ve encountered several bumps in the road, some major and others a bit less stressful.

Our programme schedule showed that we had a comfortable one$-$month gap between our original forecast delivery end date and the contractual deadline for delivery of $30$ November $2017.$ However, the Department of Trade and Industry $($DTI$)$ informed us today that payment of their first instalment might be two weeks later than the expected date in mid$-$March.

Remember that our funding agreement states that we can only start implementing units in the communities once we$$ve received DTI$$s first payment. DTI says we can expect the deposit towards the end of March, but they$$re reluctant to commit to a specific date. The impact of the two$-$week delay in payment in the critical path is that our final delivery could be delayed by up to one month.

Because we can$$t count on when we$$ll get DTI$$s payment, we can$$t yet confirm our allocation of trainers and installation technicians to their activities with Sean and Anton respectively. They both need two weeks$$ notice in order to assure the availability of their people and, without sufficient notice; they might only be available after we need them.

Because of the two$-$month lead time with the factory, a purchase order for the units to be installed in the first ten communities was placed with Julie on $23$rd January. She usually gives us two weeks$$ notice of the date on which orders will be ready for collection, but she can$$t confirm their due date yet. In fact, she says that they$$ve had some issues increasing their capacity on the production line and that the first units might only be ready in the last week of March $$ her tone suggested this was ambitious.

Either way, once Julie confirms the first units expected ready date, the bookings with Mncedi and Joseph can be confirmed by placing our purchase orders with them. Joseph also needs two weeks$$ notice to assure alignment with our schedule, while Mncedi is happy to take our flight bookings until the last minute, even as we$$re driving to the airport to catch the flight we haven$$t yet booked with him $($Jake often does this$).$

We$$ve also encountered some resistance from community leaders at some of the $$hotspot$$ communities. They are demanding that they are trained to install their own units and threaten to deny access to our technicians.

In addition, we$$ve caught wind of a growing labour dispute between the long$-$haul truck drivers$$ union and employers in the industry. Details are sketchy, though Joseph thinks we shouldn$$t worry about this affecting Crossroads Hauliers.

To compound matters, Fred informed us that both factories$$ wind turbine power generator suppliers will be increasing their prices by up to $15\%$ around June or July due to the weakening ZAR$-$USD exchange rate, which is affecting the prices of their electronic components imported from China and Malaysia.

Fred says that if there is any increase in the factory$$s selling price of units that include wind turbines, it might only happen after a few weeks$$ lag.

Some of these risks and issues seem like show stoppers and seem unresponsive to our attempts to resolve them. Our funding contract with Eskom and DTI doesn$$t allow for avoiding any troublesome communities and the deadline $$ and the penalties for late delivery $$ seem immutable.

Because Louise and the two PMs in the programme are snowed under with issues, Louise has asked you to update the risk assessment matrix. As a way of avoiding the truck drivers$$ labour issues, management is exploring handling LES$$s trucking and travel agency operations internally. Louise, therefore, wants you to research the risks and benefits of outsourced trucking and of the travel agency for this programme. Lastly, she wants you to run some risk calculations to be included in a business case for owning our own small trucking fleet.

Question $2$

Note that Question $2$ builds on content from Module $3.$

$2\mathrm{.}1$ On the next page, complete the risk assessment matrix template with the following information:

$$ Identify what you believe are the two biggest risks that, if they were to materialise, would seriously jeopardise the success of the entire programme, i$.$e$.$ don$$t discuss minor risks. Ensure that your answers are based on the information in the scenario $($Part $2$b$).$ Write each risk in its own row in the risk assessment matrix provided. Do not list issues.

$$ Risk name column: Write a short, descriptive title for the risk.

$$ Risk description: Qualify each risk by distinguishing between the risk conditions or risk cause and how the risk might affect the programme$$s success, i$.$e$.$ note both the risk conditions and if the risk were to manifest as an issue, its impact on the project.

$$ In columns $4$ to $6,$ rate each risk$$s probability and impact, and then determine the risk score for each risk using its probability and impact.

$$ In the last column, $$Risk containment plan$,$ write at least one tactic for responding to t