Week 1: Chain Ratio Spreadsheet Assignment

A pharmaceutical company is developing and planning to launch a new oral drug for cancer. The productmanager needs a 10 year forecast of net sales to make decisions about the product's potential sales.

Your assignment is to do 10 year forecast of Net $ of pharmaceutical sales using the Excel Spreadsheet approach. The Chain Ratio Spreadsheet Shell is in the folder in Moodle. This is a population based forecasting method using the assumptions below and the Excel file provided. Some assumptions are constants and some are variables. The assumptions are used to calculate intermediate and final values. If you get the first columncorrect, it's likely you have done the whole 10 years correctly.

The assumptions are:

US population = 335 million in year 2019

Growth rate for the population is 1% use this rate to calculate existing plus added population each year

Prevalence of the disorder (# of patients treated) = 12% of the population existing in a year Use Prevalence and US Population to calculate # of Existing Patients Diagnosed and Treated

Incidence of the disorder = 7% representing newly diagnosed patients each year

Use Incidence and US Population to calculate # New Patients Diagnosed and Treated in a year

Total # of Patients Diagnosed and Treated with RX= Existing + New Patients Diagnosed and Treated in a year # of Patients Captured in Market Share = 25% of treated patients are getting your pharmaceutical

Calculate Gross $ Captured Per Treated Patient per year based on $35 per month gross $ per Patient

Calculate Gross $ Lost Due to Discounts and Chargebacks at 2% of Gross Sales

Use Gross $ Captured and Gross $ Lost to calculate Total Net $ for your product in each year

Be sure to format your row cells properly. $ are not #. Create cells using the correct formulas etc. to do calculations. Ask if you have questions either on Discussion Board or the Professor directly.