WEk4 Assienment Part A. (Chapter 9: Forecasting): A recent college graduate was hired by a whole foods store as an operations planner. The owner of the store thought Kale should be forecasted using a smoothing value of 0.13, while the Operations manager felt a smoothing value of 0.25 would be better. Using F1 = 172 and the Kale demand below, which of the two managers 1s right and why? #%% Tip: an Excel file template 1s available under the CONTENT tab that you can use to enter the information and solve the question. Use the template to determine the forecast values and forecast errors using the three Forecast Error models presented in Chapter 9 to guide your choice. See Exhibit 9.8 on page 186 for an example. Week Demand 1 168 149 157 135 177 155 146 150 182 167 148 163 157 189 OG0 =) O L s L b2 -0 I \" oW Part B. (Chapter 10: Capacity Management): Walmart forecasts the following demand for a product (in thousands of units) over the next five years. Year ] 2 3 4 5 Forecast demand 42 45 46 48 51 The company outsources its manufacturing to Procter & Gamble (P&G). P&G has six machines that operate on a two-shift (8 hours each) basis. There are 240 workdays 1n a year and hfteen days per year are used for scheduled maintenance of equipment with no process output. Each manufactured unit takes 28 minutes to produce. a. What is the capacity of the factory in units per year? b. At what capacity levels (percentage of normal capacity) would the firm be operating over the next five years based on the forecasted demand? (Hint: Compute the ratio of demand to capacity each vear.) . Does the firm need to buy more machines? If so, how many? When? If not, justify. Wk4 PartA Enter smoothing value. Owner Smoothing Value Operations Manager Smoothing Value Enter F1 given in Enter the Demand the problem. for each week. Week Demand Forecast Error MAD MSE MAPE Week Demand Forecast Error MAD MSE MAPE 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! SUM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! TOTALS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! 0.0 0.0 #DIV/O! Tracking #DIV/0! Tracking #DIV/0! Signal Signal Sum(A-F)/MAD Sum(A-F)/MAD (Tracking Signal values between +/-4 indicate the forecast is performing adequately. )