Question
What is a good response to the information below? ....Opinion on it... One downside to this is that it can create and/or enforce stereotypes.For instance,
What is a good response to the information below?
....Opinion on it...
One downside to this is that it can create and/or enforce stereotypes.For instance, "women always buy a particular item" or "men always think this way".While it may be the case a majority of the time, it's not true for every individual.Nonetheless, if economists are expected to predict the direction of a particular trend, they are left to assumptions about the marketplace.One way to tackle simplicity is by conducting more thorough and rigorous polling and analysis.For instance, political polling is extremely popular right now with the upcoming presidential election.Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight is a very popular and accurate because he has a larger source base, thus lowering his margin of error.
2.What makes a good model?
What makes a good model is first by stating a hypothesis. It's important to note that a hypothesis can be incorrect. An example of a hypothesis would be, "people use the camera on their cell phone to take pictures rather than using actual cameras."Second is testing the hypothesis using economic data.A company that wishes to then test this hypothesis would analyze the amount of pictures that are developed in stores. An economist would note that the number of pictures that are developed in stores is in sharp decline. An economist could also analyze the number of cell phones sold with cameras versus those sold without cameras.Any economist would realize the trend in camera usage on cell phones and relay this info to a cell phone manufacturer like Apple.While this may seem obvious now days, some major predictions and assumptions had to be formulated back in the early 2000s to come to this conclusion.
3.My model and it's usefulness
An article I found pointed to an economic model that forecasted a sharp downturn in economic activity following 9/11.President Bush immediately encouraged people to shop and travel.While his suggestions seemed callous, economic hypothesis proved to be correct.The hypothesis being that people will stop buying things and traveling because of the terror attacks.Sure enough, the weeks and months that followed, the markets dramatically slowed, proving the economic forecast was correct.
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