what is the discounted cash flow analysis for Goodman group?
Table 6: Our GMG Forecasts Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) J.P.Morgan P&L Summary (A$m) FY21 FY22E FY24E FY25E Cash Flow Extract (A$m) FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Property Investment 412 485 569 651 737 Net cash from op activities 1,115 1,433 1,632 1,821 Management Income (inc DM 459 565 673 775 867 -Acq & net investments -11 0 0 0 Development Income 718 84 907 967 989 Capex on investment 10 -1 -2 Total Income 1,588 1,899 2,149 2,392 592 Capex on maintenance -11 -11 -12 -12 Unallocated Expense 294 309 321 334 Net cash from Inv activities 550 -1.996 -1,828 1,99 EBI 1.294 1,591 1,828 2,058 2,245 Share and other securities 65 0 0 0 Net Interest 16 52 69 82 96 Debt drawdown (repayment) 892 1,120 791 850 NPBT 1,278 1,539 1,759 1.976 2,149 Distributions paid .551 -557 -595 674 Tax Expense 5 10 119 146 Net cash from Fin activities 1,349 563 196 176 NPAT 1,219 1,439 1,640 1,830 1,980 Net Increase in Cash Held -784 0 % growth 15.0% 18.0% 14.0% 11.6% 8.1% Distribution 55 560 638 71 770 Balance Sheet Summary FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Total Current Assets 1,626 1,815 1,93 .,052 EBIT Analysis FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E Investment Properties 1,851 1,898 1,946 1,994 Total EBIT 1,299 595 ,833 2,063 ,249 nv in mgd funds (equity acc'd) 11,023 13,018 14,843 16,827 Trust EBIT 382 45 537 617 703 Total Non Current Assets 15,24 17,712 19,880 22,189 % of Earnings from Trust 29.4% 28.5% 29.3% 29.9% 31.2% Total Assets 16,862 19.527 21,816 24,242 Corp EBIT 917 1,141 1,296 1,446 1,547 Total Current Liabilities 1,034 1,200 1,358 1,503 Corp EBIT split- Total Interest Bearing Liabilities 2,060 3,180 3,971 4,822 Management 92.8% 101.8% 107.3% 108.4% 110.2% Total Non Current Liabilities 2,672 3,828 1,644 5,518 Developmen 7.2% -1.8% -7.3% -8.4%% -10.2% Total Liabilities 3,706 5.028 6,002 7,021 Net Asset 13,162 14.499 15,815 17,221 Total Dev Completions 9.3 10.0 10.5 Dev in 3rd party funds 5.9 6.7 7. 7.3 7.6 Leverage FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E % on B/Sheet 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% Balance Sheet Gearing 7.1% 12.1% 14.6% 16.79 Balance Sheet Debt/Equity 15.7% 21.9% 25.1% 28.0% Per Share Ratios (A$ cents) FY21 Y22E Y23E FY24E FY25E Interest Cover 78.8 30.6 6.4 25.1 DPS 30.0 30.0 33.9 37.5 40.5 DPS % growth 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 10.6% .1% AUM (AS FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E JPM Adjusted Group EPS (c) 65. 76. 86. 95. 103.3 Australia (On Balance Sheet) 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 Adjusted EPS % growth 14.09 16.9% 2.90% 0.60 7.9% Australian Funds 16.9 19.6 23. 5.4 AFFO 64.9 75. 85. 94. 102.3 New Zealand 3.6 4.2 5.6 AFFO % growth 14.4% 16.9% 13.0% 10.6% .9% Hong Kong 9.3 9.6 10.2 Payout ratio 45.8% 39.19 39.1% 39.1% 39.2 UK 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 AFFO Payout ratio 46.3% 39.6% 39.5% 39.5% 39.6% Europe 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.8 Japan 3.9 5.1 6.3 7.6 Closing # of Securities 1,847 1,865 1,883 1,901 1,901 China 5.9 7.4 8.9 10.5 Average Ordinary Securities 1,860 1,876 1,894 1,912 1,916 US 4.9 6.2 7.7 9.2 Brazil 0.8 1.2 2.1 NAV review FY22E Total FUM 59.5 59.3 80. 90.3 Assumed Avg Cap Rate 4.09 % FUM growth 96% 16.4 15.5% 12.9% Trust Valuation 11,691 External FUM 54.0 63.7 74.4 84.7 Corporate Multiple 23. Ext FUM growth 9.4% 18.0% 16.8% 13.8% Corp Valuation 26,09 Net debt & other assets & liabilities -816 Valuation Ratios (x) FY21 FY22E FY23E FY23E Total value 36,972 NPV (using AFFO) $23.78 NAV 20.01 Premium (discount) to NPV 4.8% Premium (discount) to NAV 3.19 Adjusted NTA per security 6.68 7.33 7.96 8.63 Implied cap rate 1.1% Price To NTA 339% 309% 284% 262% Implied Multiple 28.0 P/E Multiple 34.5 29.5 26.2 23.6 Dividend Yield 1.370 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% AFFO Yield 2.9% 3.3% 3.8% 4.2% EBIT Multiple 32.9 27.4 24.3 22.0
