. What is the true probability that someone who tests negative does not have the virus? A positive test results for someone who has significant symptoms means there is clear evidence that person has it. But how about testing people without obvious symptoms? How can we interpret a test result for someone who doesn't have symptoms and has no clear indication of having been exposed to the virus? This is important because policy makers are faced with the following questions: . Is one negative test enough to let someone go back to work/school? . Is one positive test enough to quarantine that person? . Considering the fact that tests are not perfect, when is it justifiable, if at all, to perform more than one test on an individual? Bayes' rule can help us address some of these questions. For this purpose we need estimates of the probability of false positives and false negatives, and the percentage of the population currently exposed to the virus. Assume that a test is 90% accurate in testing positive when someone has it. That implies that 10% of the people with virus will falsely test negative. That same medical test can also test positive 15% of the time when someone does not have the virus (false positive). Corona Virus in New York City New York City was hit very hard by Covid-19 virus. Early data indicates that about 20% of the New York City population has had some exposure to the virus. This means that if a person is picked at random from the population that does not have symptoms, there is a 20% chance the selected person has the virus. Homework questions Now, you have all the information needed to answer related homework questions. Please review the hint document before attempting homework questions.D Question 8 1 pts Based on Bayesian Analysis for Covid Test in New York City problem. Assume one test is being conducted, what percentage of the population will test negative for the virus? O 70% O 68% O 95% O 60% O None of the above Previous NextQuiz Instructions Question Question Question Question D Question 9 1 pts Questio Question Based on Bayesian Analysis for Covid Test in New York City problem. Assume only one test is being conducted. What fraction of the population, with positive test results, have the virus (without significant symptoms)? Time Elapsed: Attempt due: Sep 5 a 1 Day, 8 Hours, O 18% Seconds O None of the above O 30% O 60% 0 90% Previous Next Not saved Submit QuizWeek 1 Assignment Ques Started: Sep 1 at 3:31pm Quiz Instructions D Question 10 1 pts Based on Bayesian Analysis for Covid Test in New York City problem. Assume two tests are being conducted for each individual. What is the probability that someone with two positive test results actually have the virus? Time Ela Attempt d 1 Day, 8 O 0.162 Seconds O None of the above answers O 0.9 Almost 1 O 0.18 Previous Not saved Submit Quiz