Question
When interest rates are high, fewer people can afford to borrow to buy a new home.For this reason, new home construction is likely to decline
When interest rates are high, fewer people can afford to borrow to buy a new home.For this reason, new home construction is likely to decline with interest rates.Consider the following model (using the dataset: house_starts.dat, POE).
STARTSt = 1 + 2 FIXED_RATEt + et
whereSTARTS = housing starts by monthFIXED_RATE = the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (annual interest rate) by month(so, for example, FIXED_RATE =1.0 means 1% annual rate).
Summary statistics, using the observations 1 - 184
mean | Median | Min | Max | SD | |
Fixed rate | 7.6508 | 7.6570 | 5.5000 | 10.220 | 1.1463 |
Starts | 1506.7 | 1525.5 | 798.00 | 2228.0 | 272.91 |
Model 1: OLS, using observations 1-184 Dependent variable: STARTS
coefficent | sed.error | t-ratiop | p-value | |
const | 2992.74 | 78.9515 | 37.91 | 266e-088 |
Fixed_Rate | -194.223 | 10.2061 | smudge | smudge |
Mean dependent var 1506.696
S.D. dependent var 272.9083
Sum squared resid 4558359
S.E. of regression 158.2590
i. Is this a time series or cross section dataset?ii. What is the ordinary least squares estimate of the intercept, 1? What is
the estimate of the slope, 2?
iii. Unfortunately, someone smudged the t-ratio and p-value for the slopecoefficient. What is the t statistic? Is the coefficient significantly
different from zero at the 1% level?
iv. In what units is b1 measured?v. Interpret the coefficient estimates. What does the estimate b1 mean in
words? What does the estimate b2 mean in words?
vi. If 30-year fixed mortgage rates rise by 2 percentage points, how much doyou estimate that housing starts will fall? What if the mortgage rate rises
by 5 percentage points?
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