Which one of the following is the best example of an announcement that is most apt to result in an unexpected return?

Question 3 options:

1)	A news bulletin that the anticipated layoffs by a firm will occur as expected on December 1

2)	Announcement that the CFO of the firm is retiring June 1 as previously announced

3)	Announcement that a firm will continue its practice of paying a $3 a share annual dividend

4)	Statement by a firm that it has just discovered a manufacturing defect and is recalling its product