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. Which should be larger, the risk-neutral probability or the actual probability that the S&P 500 portfolio exceeds 4,500 (its current level is 4,187.62) by

. Which should be larger, the risk-neutral probability or the actual probability that the S&P 500 portfolio exceeds 4,500 (its current level is 4,187.62) by the end of the year. Why?

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