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Canadian Business Sentiment Softens, Bank of Canada Survey Finds

Some firms are less optimistic about demand amid global trade tensions and weakness in housing and energy

OTTAWACanadian companies are expressing less optimism amid global trade tensions and weakness in the country's housing and energy sectors, according to a Bank of Canada survey published Monday.

The central bank's quarterly gauge of business intentions and optimism indicates that overall business sentiment turned slightly negative during the first quarter of this year, compared with a positive reading at the end of last year. The last time the survey showed a negative level for overall business sentiment was in the third quarter of 2016.

"Firms' expectations for sales remain positive but have softened as several businesses are less optimistic about demand," the survey said. Meanwhile, the central bank said investment and employment intentionsremain healthy in most regions of the country.

Headwinds faced by Canadian companies include a more uncertain outlook for the country's energy sector, which is still feeling the effects of the sharp drop in oil prices last year, and continued housing-related weakness in some regions, the survey said. Tangible impacts from global trade tensions are also weighing on companies' expectations.

Inflation expectations were down in the latest survey, but remained concentrated in the central bank's 1% to 3% target range.

CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said the survey's results weren't surprising, given the weak economic datathat has come in recently. TheCanadianeconomy slowed during the fourth quarter of last year in a shift that theBankofCanadahas characterized as sharper and more broad-based than it had expected.

Canada's housing sector has also slowed over the past year amid pressure from higher interest rates and the introduction of rules toughening mortgage-financing eligibility.

Mr. Shenfeld said softer expectations for inflation should give the central bank license to keep interest rates on hold throughout this year.

The Bank of Canada has lifted its key rate five times since mid-2017, bringing it to the current level of 1.75%. Its next rate decision is due April 24 and will be released alongside updates on the economic outlook and the central bank's estimate of the neutral interest rate, or the rate at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restrains growth.

Many economists have scaled back their expectations for future interest-rate increases in recent months and now expect the Bank of Canada to remain in a long pause. In comments to reporters in Washington over the weekend, Bank of Canada Gov.Stephen Poloz said the central bank remains dependent on incoming dataand added: "It's obvious that we're still working on some headwinds."

The Bank of Canada survey, which is based on interviews with senior management from 100 companies, was conducted between Feb. 19 and March 13.