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Worksheet 4-4: Stock market observers have opinions about whether stock returns tend to be different between the first, second, third, or fourth year of a
Worksheet 4-4: Stock market observers have opinions about whether stock returns tend to be different between the first, second, third, or fourth year of a U.S. Presidential administration. There are also opinions about whether stock returns are better with a Democratic President or Republican President. The table on Worksheet 4-4 organizes the total annual return on S&P 500 (as a percent without the percent sign) for years from 1941 through 2020 according to the year of the administration or whether the President was a Democrat or Republican. Conduct tests of whether there are differences in average total annual returns on the S&P 500 according to whether the President was a Democrat or Republican and according to the year relative to a Presidential administration. Also test whether the degree of interaction between the party of the President to determine the validity of doing the tests of differences in means for each factor. Use a 0.05 significance level for all tests. NOTE: For these tests, you only need to identify the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis, p-value, conclusion, and implication.A B C D E F G H K M N Q R WH Party 1st Yr 2nd Yr 3rd Yr 4th Yr Place hypothesis steps below the appropriate label. 2 Democrat -12.77 19.17 25.06 19.03 NOTE: There are THREE hypothesis tests to be completed. 35.82 -8.43 5.2 5.7 AW 18.3 30.81 23.68 18.15 Test of Difference According to Party in White House 26.64 -8.81 22.61 16.42 12.4 -9.97 23.8 10.81 Null Hypothesis: 6.98 5.51 18.52 31.74 9.97 1.33 37.2 22.68 33.1 28.34 20.89 -9.03 Alternative Hypothesis: 10 25.94 14.82 2.1 15.89 11 32.15 13.52 1.38 11.77 12 Republican -1.21 52.56 32.6 7.44 p-Value: 13 -10.46 43.72 12.06 0.34 14 -8.24 3.56 14.22 18.76 15 -14.31 -25.9 37 23.83 Conclusion based on p-value: 16 4.7 20.42 22.34 6.15 17 31.24 18.49 5.81 16.54 18 31.48 -3.06 30.23 7.49 19 -11.85 -21.97 28.36 10.74 Implication of Result for Research Question: 20 4.83 15.61 5.48 -36.55 21 21.61 -4.23 31.21 18.02 22 23 24 Test of Difference According to Year of Term 25 26 Null Hypothesis: 28 29 Alternative Hypothesis: 30 31 32 p-Value: 33 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4B C F K L N Q A D E G H M R BO 31 32 p-Value: 33 34 35 Conclusion based on p-value: 36 37 38 Implication of Result for Research Question: 39 40 41 42 43 Test of Factor Interaction 44 45 Null Hypothesis: 46 47 48 Alternative Hypothesis: 49 50 51 p-Value: 52 53 54 Conclusion based on p-value: 55 56 57 58 Implication of Result for Research Question: 59 60 61 62
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