Y1Q1	58100
Y1Q2	66800
Y1Q3	63400
Y1Q4	56100
Y2Q1	51900
Y2Q2	62800
Y2Q3	64700
Y2Q4	53500
Y3Q1	47000
Y3Q2	60500
Y3Q3	59200
Y3Q4	51600
Y4Q1	48100
Y4Q2	55100
Y4Q3	50300
Y4Q4	44500
Y5Q1	43300
Y5Q2	51700
Y5Q3	50500
Y5Q4	42600
Y6Q1	35400
Y6Q2	47400
Y6Q3	47200
Y6Q4	40900
Y7Q1	43000
Y7Q2	52800
Y7Q3	57000
Y7Q4	57600
Y8Q1	56400
Y8Q2	64300
Y8Q3	67100
Y8Q4	66400
Y9Q1	69100
Y9Q2	78700
Y9Q3	78700
Y9Q4	77500
Y10Q1	79200
Y10Q2	86800
Y10Q3	87600
Y10Q4	86400

Consider the data on quarterly mobile home shipments over last ten years (download EXCEL file MobileHome.xlsx from Canvas).

1. If company uses 3 period moving average method for these data, how good is the forecast (compute Mean Absolute % Error and RMSE). Create your own EXCEL spreadsheet to forecast for Period 4 onwards and compute Mean % Error, Mean Absolute % Error, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and other indicators. Discuss what information these indicators provide.

1. Repeat Part (a) if company uses 4 period moving averages. Compare the results to the one obtained in part (a).

1. Repeat Part (a) if company uses 3 period weighted moving average (where at time t, your forecast for time (t+1) is (3/6) *X_t + (2/6) *X_t-1 + (1/6)*X_t-2). Compare the results to the one obtained in part (a) as well as part (b).

1. Of the three models, which one will you use? Using this model. What will be your forecast for next period (Y11Q1)? How good do you think is your forecast (Hint: Create approximate 95% confidence interval)?