Question
Year S&P 500 (includes dividends) 3-month T.Bill US T. Bond Baa Corporate Bond Real Estate Gold 1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% 1.49% 0.10% 1929 -8.30%
Year | S&P 500 (includes dividends) | 3-month T.Bill | US T. Bond | Baa Corporate Bond | Real Estate | Gold |
1928 | 43.81% | 3.08% | 0.84% | 3.22% | 1.49% | 0.10% |
1929 | -8.30% | 3.16% | 4.20% | 3.02% | -2.06% | -0.15% |
1930 | -25.12% | 4.55% | 4.54% | 0.54% | -4.30% | 0.10% |
1931 | -43.84% | 2.31% | -2.56% | -15.68% | -8.15% | -17.38% |
1932 | -8.64% | 1.07% | 8.79% | 23.59% | -10.47% | 21.28% |
1933 | 49.98% | 0.96% | 1.86% | 12.97% | -3.81% | 27.26% |
1934 | -1.19% | 0.28% | 7.96% | 18.82% | 2.91% | 31.75% |
1935 | 46.74% | 0.17% | 4.47% | 13.31% | 9.77% | 0.43% |
1936 | 31.94% | 0.17% | 5.02% | 11.38% | 3.22% | 0.09% |
1937 | -35.34% | 0.28% | 1.38% | -4.42% | 2.56% | -0.23% |
1938 | 29.28% | 0.07% | 4.21% | 9.24% | -0.87% | 0.17% |
1939 | -1.10% | 0.05% | 4.41% | 7.98% | -1.30% | -1.23% |
1940 | -10.67% | 0.04% | 5.40% | 8.65% | 3.31% | -1.66% |
1941 | -12.77% | 0.13% | -2.02% | 5.01% | -8.38% | 0.00% |
1942 | 19.17% | 0.34% | 2.29% | 5.18% | 3.33% | 0.00% |
1943 | 25.06% | 0.38% | 2.49% | 8.04% | 11.45% | 0.00% |
1944 | 19.03% | 0.38% | 2.58% | 6.57% | 16.58% | 0.00% |
1945 | 35.82% | 0.38% | 3.80% | 6.80% | 11.78% | 2.54% |
1946 | -8.43% | 0.38% | 3.13% | 2.51% | 24.10% | 0.00% |
1947 | 5.20% | 0.60% | 0.92% | 0.26% | 21.26% | 0.00% |
1948 | 5.70% | 1.05% | 1.95% | 3.44% | 2.06% | 0.00% |
1949 | 18.30% | 1.12% | 4.66% | 5.38% | 0.09% | -8.70% |
1950 | 30.81% | 1.20% | 0.43% | 4.24% | 3.64% | 9.56% |
1951 | 23.68% | 1.52% | -0.30% | -0.19% | 6.05% | 0.00% |
1952 | 18.15% | 1.72% | 2.27% | 4.44% | 4.41% | -0.35% |
1953 | -1.21% | 1.89% | 4.14% | 1.62% | 11.52% | 0.69% |
1954 | 52.56% | 0.94% | 3.29% | 6.16% | 0.92% | 0.57% |
1955 | 32.60% | 1.72% | -1.34% | 2.04% | 0.00% | -0.03% |
1956 | 7.44% | 2.62% | -2.26% | -2.35% | 0.91% | -0.11% |
1957 | -10.46% | 3.22% | 6.80% | -0.72% | 2.72% | -0.11% |
1958 | 43.72% | 1.77% | -2.10% | 6.43% | 0.66% | 0.43% |
1959 | 12.06% | 3.39% | -2.65% | 1.57% | 0.11% | 0.00% |
1960 | 0.34% | 2.87% | 11.64% | 6.66% | 0.77% | 0.48% |
1961 | 26.64% | 2.35% | 2.06% | 5.10% | 0.98% | -0.06% |
1962 | -8.81% | 2.77% | 5.69% | 6.50% | 0.32% | -0.06% |
1963 | 22.61% | 3.16% | 1.68% | 5.46% | 2.14% | -0.40% |
1964 | 16.42% | 3.55% | 3.73% | 5.16% | 1.26% | 0.03% |
1965 | 12.40% | 3.95% | 0.72% | 3.19% | 1.66% | 0.06% |
1966 | -9.97% | 4.86% | 2.91% | -3.45% | 1.22% | 0.03% |
1967 | 23.80% | 4.29% | -1.58% | 0.90% | 2.32% | -0.51% |
1968 | 10.81% | 5.34% | 3.27% | 4.85% | 4.13% | 12.47% |
1969 | -8.24% | 6.67% | -5.01% | -2.03% | 6.99% | 5.01% |
1970 | 3.56% | 6.39% | 16.75% | 5.65% | 8.22% | -9.45% |
1971 | 14.22% | 4.33% | 9.79% | 14.00% | 4.24% | 16.69% |
1972 | 18.76% | 4.06% | 2.82% | 11.41% | 2.98% | 48.78% |
1973 | -14.31% | 7.04% | 3.66% | 4.32% | 3.42% | 72.96% |
1974 | -25.90% | 7.85% | 1.99% | -4.38% | 10.07% | 66.15% |
1975 | 37.00% | 5.79% | 3.61% | 11.05% | 6.77% | -24.80% |
1976 | 23.83% | 4.98% | 15.98% | 19.75% | 8.18% | -4.10% |
1977 | -6.98% | 5.26% | 1.29% | 9.95% | 14.65% | 22.64% |
1978 | 6.51% | 7.18% | -0.78% | 3.14% | 15.72% | 37.01% |
1979 | 18.52% | 10.05% | 0.67% | -2.01% | 13.74% | 126.55% |
1980 | 31.74% | 11.39% | -2.99% | -3.32% | 7.40% | 15.19% |
1981 | -4.70% | 14.04% | 8.20% | 8.46% | 5.10% | -32.60% |
1982 | 20.42% | 10.60% | 32.81% | 29.05% | 0.56% | 15.62% |
1983 | 22.34% | 8.62% | 3.20% | 16.19% | 4.75% | -16.80% |
1984 | 6.15% | 9.54% | 13.73% | 15.62% | 4.68% | -19.38% |
1985 | 31.24% | 7.47% | 25.71% | 23.86% | 7.47% | 6.00% |
1986 | 18.49% | 5.97% | 24.28% | 21.49% | 9.61% | 18.96% |
1987 | 5.81% | 5.78% | -4.96% | 2.29% | 7.88% | 24.53% |
1988 | 16.54% | 6.67% | 8.22% | 15.12% | 7.21% | -15.26% |
1989 | 31.48% | 8.11% | 17.69% | 15.79% | 4.38% | -2.84% |
1990 | -3.06% | 7.50% | 6.24% | 6.14% | -0.69% | -3.11% |
1991 | 30.23% | 5.38% | 15.00% | 17.85% | -0.16% | -8.56% |
1992 | 7.49% | 3.43% | 9.36% | 12.17% | 0.82% | -5.73% |
1993 | 9.97% | 3.00% | 14.21% | 16.43% | 2.16% | 17.68% |
1994 | 1.33% | 4.25% | -8.04% | -1.32% | 2.51% | -2.17% |
1995 | 37.20% | 5.49% | 23.48% | 20.16% | 1.80% | 0.98% |
1996 | 22.68% | 5.01% | 1.43% | 4.79% | 2.42% | -4.59% |
1997 | 33.10% | 5.06% | 9.94% | 11.83% | 4.02% | -21.41% |
1998 | 28.34% | 4.78% | 14.92% | 7.95% | 6.45% | -0.83% |
1999 | 20.89% | 4.64% | -8.25% | 0.84% | 7.68% | 0.85% |
2000 | -9.03% | 5.82% | 16.66% | 9.33% | 9.28% | -5.44% |
2001 | -11.85% | 3.40% | 5.57% | 7.82% | 6.67% | 0.75% |
2002 | -21.97% | 1.61% | 15.12% | 12.18% | 9.56% | 25.57% |
2003 | 28.36% | 1.01% | 0.38% | 13.53% | 9.82% | 19.89% |
2004 | 10.74% | 1.37% | 4.49% | 9.89% | 13.64% | 4.65% |
2005 | 4.83% | 3.15% | 2.87% | 4.92% | 13.51% | 17.77% |
2006 | 15.61% | 4.73% | 1.96% | 7.05% | 1.73% | 23.20% |
2007 | 5.48% | 4.36% | 10.21% | 3.15% | -5.40% | 31.92% |
2008 | -36.55% | 1.37% | 20.10% | -5.07% | -12.00% | 4.32% |
2009 | 25.94% | 0.15% | -11.12% | 23.33% | -3.85% | 25.04% |
2010 | 14.82% | 0.14% | 8.46% | 8.35% | -4.12% | 29.24% |
2011 | 2.10% | 0.05% | 16.04% | 12.58% | -3.88% | 12.02% |
2012 | 15.89% | 0.09% | 2.97% | 10.12% | 6.44% | 5.68% |
2013 | 32.15% | 0.06% | -9.10% | -1.06% | 10.72% | -27.61% |
2014 | 13.52% | 0.03% | 10.75% | 10.38% | 4.51% | 0.12% |
2015 | 1.38% | 0.05% | 1.28% | -0.70% | 5.21% | -12.11% |
2016 | 11.77% | 0.32% | 0.69% | 10.37% | 5.31% | 8.10% |
2017 | 21.61% | 0.93% | 2.80% | 9.72% | 6.21% | 12.66% |
2018 | -4.23% | 1.94% | -0.02% | -2.76% | 4.53% | -0.93% |
2019 | 31.21% | 2.06% | 9.64% | 15.33% | 3.69% | 19.08% |
2020 | 18.02% | 0.35% | 11.33% | 10.41% | 10.35% | 24.17% |
2021 | 28.47% | 0.05% | -4.42% | 0.93% | 18.91% | -3.75% |
2022 | -18.01% | 2.02% | -17.83% | -14.49% | 7.30% | 0.55% |
To maintain a semblance of her prior lifestyle she needs to draw down 50K per year to complement social security and other pension payments. a) Based on actual data (use the random function to select different starting years, sampling 40 times), determine the average number of years she can continue to draw down 50K before she runs out of money.
b) Second, since your client understands distribution (she took this course) and comes from a family of septagenarians, she wants to know what is the maximum she can draw down, with 95% confidence, if she expects to live to 78. She is 65 now.
c) finally, any other advice you would like to offer
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