Question
You are a meteorologist that places temperature sensors all of the world, and you set them up so that they automatically e-mail you, each day,
You are a meteorologist that places temperature sensors all of the world, and you set them up so that they automatically e-mail you, each day, the high temperature for that day. Unfortunately, you have forgotten whether you placed a certain sensor S in Maine or in the Sahara desert (but you are sure you placed it in one of those two places) . The probability that you placed sensor S in Maine is 5%. The probability of getting a daily high temperature of 80 degrees or more is 20% in Maine and 90% in Sahara. Assume that probability of a daily high for any day is conditionally independent of the daily high for the previous day, given the location of the sensor.
Part a: If the first e-mail you got from sensor S indicates a daily high under 80 degrees, what is the probability that the sensor is placed in Maine?
Part b: If the first e-mail you got from sensor S indicates a daily high under 80 degrees, what is the probability that the second e-mail also indicates a daily high under 80 degrees?
Part c: What is the probability that the first three e-mails all indicate daily highs under 80 degrees?
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