You are a new hire as an analyst working for a large private credit group that specializes in consumer loans. One small division, loans for retail discretionary, has been losing money. The first thing you notice is that the company hasn$$t been doing credit checks on prospective clients in that arena because your CFO claimed the cost obtaining it is too high and you want to grow market share in that area. You are intent to examine the CFO$$s claim about the high cost. You note that in the company$$s history, $82\%$ of the loans in this division have been paid off and the rest defaulted. Your analysis suggests that if you were to start using credit worthiness tests, insights to probability of default are: