You are considering an investment in a CAT bond. The CAT bond will mature in one year and will pay the face value of $100 with probability of 98% (which reflects the probability of no major hurricane) and nothing with probability of 2% (which reflects the probability of a major hurricane). The beta of the CAT bond is zero. The market price of the bond is $90. The expected return on the market portfolio is 15%, and risk-free rate is 2%.

a) What is the alpha of the CAT bond? (2 points)

b) Perhaps, the estimated probability of a major hurricane was wrong. Please calculate the probability of a major hurricane that would make you indifferent between investing and not investing in the CAT bond. (2 points)