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You are considering making a loan for $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 at an interest rate of 5 % . The loan
You are considering making a loan for $ at an interest rate of The loan can either
a be prepaid immediately, in which case you receive back your $ at zero profit
or
b be repaid in one period at interest rate a repayment of $ in one year
You do not know the right rate to discount cashflows, but will learn that appropriate discount rate at the moment after loan closing. There is a chance your discount rate will be and a chance your discount rate will be thus repayment a year from now would be worth $ with probability and $ with the remaining probability
Suppose that there is a chance that the borrower will repay the loan immediately regardless of what you learn about discounting.
Of the remaining of borrowers, none will prepay immediately should your discount rate be But if your discount rate is of remaining borrowers will be "woodheads" and only repay next year. The remaining will prepay immediately.
In other words, of borrowers prepay randomly, and are woodheads, and are rational prepayers.
What is the expected value Net of the initial $ so expected profitability to you of this loan before uncerainty is revealed?
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