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You are considering making a loan for $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 at an interest rate of 5 % . The loan

You are considering making a loan for $100,000 at an interest rate of 5%. The loan can either
(a) be prepaid immediately, in which case you receive back your $100,000 at zero profit
or
(b) be repaid in one period at interest rate 5%(a repayment of $105,000 in one year).
You do not know the right rate to discount cashflows, but will learn that appropriate discount rate at the moment after loan closing. There is a 50% chance your discount rate will be .03 and a 50% chance your discount rate will be .07.(thus repayment a year from now would be worth $105,000/1.03 with 50% probability and $105,000/1.07 with the remaining 50% probability).
Suppose that there is a 25% chance that the borrower will repay the loan immediately regardless of what you learn about discounting.
Of the remaining 75% of borrowers, none will prepay immediately should your discount rate be 7%. But if your discount rate is 3%,25% of remaining borrowers will be "woodheads" and only repay next year. The remaining 75% will prepay immediately.
In other words, 25% of borrowers prepay randomly, and 25%*75% are woodheads, and 75%*75% are rational prepayers.
What is the expected value (Net of the initial $100,000, so expected profitability) to you of this loan before uncerainty is revealed?

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