You are considering three different investment options (d1 - buy oil stocks, d2 - buy online tech stocks, and d3 - place money in a GIC). How each investment will perform depends on how long the COVID-19 situation persists. If it goes on for a long time (s2), oil stocks will continue to do very poorly (payoff of -10000), while online tech stocks will do well (payoff of 28000); the situation is reversed if the outbreak resolves quickly (s1) (payoff of 32000 for oil and -12000 for tech). The return for the GIC, being 'guaranteed', is not random (payoff of 115000). You have estimated the probability of a quick end P(s1) = 0.37, while P(s2) = 0.63.