You are currently in debt $10,000 to your bank for getting a loan to pay for your house. The bank charges you 5% interest annually on the debt outstanding. You have $5000 of cash, which you are either going to invest in the stock market, or pay to the bank to lower your debt.

You estimate that if you invest in the stock-market, the $5000 investment has 15% chance to drop to $3500. 50% chance to increase to $5300 35% chance to increase to $6200

What is the annual expected return for the investment in the stock market?

0.0%

6.9%

-13.3%

7.4%