You are examining the record of an investment newsleTer writer who claims a 70 percent success rate
in making investment recommenda3ons that are profitable over a one-year 3me horizon. You have the
one-year record of the newsleTers seven most recent recommenda3ons. Four of those
recommenda3ons were profitable. If all the recommenda3ons are independent and the newsleTer
writers skill is as claimed, what is the probability of observing four or fewer profitable recommenda3ons
out of seven in total? You are examining the record of an investment newsleTer writer who claims a 70 percent success rate
in making investment recommenda3ons that are profitable over a one-year 3me horizon. You have the
one-year record of the newsleTers seven most recent recommenda3ons. Four of those
recommenda3ons were profitable. If all the recommenda3ons are independent and the newsleTer
writers skill is as claimed, what is the probability of observing four or fewer profitable recommenda3ons
out of seven in total?

8. You are examining the record of an investment newsletter writer who claims a 70 percent success rate in making investment recommendations that are profitable over a one-year time horizon. You have the one-year record of the newsletter's seven most recent recommendations. Four of those recommendations were profitable. If all the recommendations are independent and the newsletter writer's skill is as claimed, what is the probability of observing four or fewer profitable recommendations out of seven in total