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You are given the following information on the best guess of related outcomes for a project. The initial cash outlay of a 3-year pilot study
You are given the following information on the best guess of related outcomes for a project. The initial cash outlay of a 3-year pilot study of the product is $12M: which represents the only cash flow associated with the pilot study. Following the pilot study, the company will spend an additional $72M to put the productive capabilities in place at t=3. If the study is successful, which is expected to have a probability of 0.70: the expected annual cash flows will be S30M during the 5-year production period. If the study fails, the expected annual cash flows will be S15M for five years. The applicable discount rate is 14% during the production period: and 12% during the pilot study period. Compute the NPV of this project (at t=0) assuming that the project will be implemented regardless of the outcome of the pilot study. To save your calculation, you are given that the value, at t=3: of the 5-year S30M annuity is $103.0M: and that of the 5-year S15M annuity is $51.5M. Now, you are given the option to upgrade by building a better production facility at t=3 for S90M if the pilot study fails, but stays with the original plan at t=3 if the study is successful. The upgraded facility is expected to generate annual cash flows of S25M for five years. Compute the PV (at t=0) of the option to upgrade. Would this option to upgrade change your recommendation on this project? Why
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