Question
You are helping one of your young cousins in making the decision of going to UK to work on a one year work visa. He
You are helping one of your young cousins in making the decision of going to UK to work on a one year work visa. He is uncertain what will be his expenses in the UK? He has prepared a single point estimation but he is not satisfied with his estimate as there is a lot of uncertainty and hence risk in the process. He came to know that you are skilled in taking up uncertainty and risk into account while making decisions. He is also aware that you have some magic software that can realistically tell him what amount of money he might be saving after all expense? He contacted you about his situation and you have decided to help him by developing a probabilistic estimate of money (using @risk for Excel) he would be spending during his work in UK for one year.
Follow is your cousin's estimate about his salary and living costs. All numbers are in GBP.
- Salary: 80,000
- Expense:
- Tax: 10% (Fixed)
- Apartment: 12,000 per year (Range: GBP 9,000-15,000)
- Transport: 1,000 per year (Range: GBP 800-1500)
- Utility Bills: 2,000 per year (Range: GBP 1,700-2,800)
- Groceries: 6,000 per year (Range: GBP 4,500-9,000)
- Entertainment: 3,000 per year (Range: GBP 1,000-8,000)
- Personal Care: 3,000 per year (Range: GBP 2,000-6,000)
- Christmas Travel and Gifts: 3,000 per year (Range: GBP 2,500-6,000)
- Miscell Expense: 1,500 per year (Range: GBP 1,000-4,000)
Please determine if it would be finically feasible for your cousin to move to UK for work. Use Triangular Distribution and base your estimate on a 95% confidence level.
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