You are running a fund that consists of a portfolio that is long several complex derivatives. The portfolio has a current value of 25 million. The expected return of the portfolio is 15% (annualized), and the standard deviation of the returns is 28%. You can assume the returns are normally distributed. (20 points) (a) What is the 2-year 95% Value at Risk (VaR) of your fund and explain what this value means? (5 points) (b) Now suppose that if portfolio value falls below 10 million during the next 2-years, then you will begin to face distress due to investor withdrawals. Calculate the probability of this occurring. (8 points)