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You are running an arbitrage-based hedge fund focusing on merger transactions. Company xy h. has Just recelved a tender offer for 348 ber share from

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You are running an arbitrage-based hedge fund focusing on merger transactions. Company xy h. has Just recelved a tender offer for 348 ber share from the management of AcquisiCorp, For the past two wecks, XYZ s stares traded at around $33, but imenediately after the tender otfer the market price of those shares rose to theif current level of \$45. On the other hand, AcquisiCorp's share price fell from ts3 to sa1 right after the announcernent of the proposed takeover. Furthet, interest rates in the economy have recently risen from 2.6 percent to 3.4 percent based on renewed fears of inflation. a. Calculate the makbet's implied probabulity that the takeover will ultimately be succesisful. Do not round intermediate calculatons. Rocind your answer to two decimal places b. Explain how you can ase this information to decide whether wou thould take a lono position on a short position in the stock of cornpany xrz. Kound the monetaiy values te the nearest dollar and percentage value to two decimal plackh. According to this probability, the deal has a better than percent of being completed in order to justify purchasing xy2 stock for 3 in the hope of seling at the tender offer price of: ; if the deal falls apart XY2 's-shares will return to 5

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