You are trying to make your best guess about next year's return on a stock:

• If the stock is very profitable, the return next year will be 16%. This is a 31 percent likely scenario.
• If the stock does alright, the return next year will be 12%. This is a 46 percent likely scenario.
• If the stock does poorly, the return next year will be -5%. This scenario will happen with the remaining likelihood.

Calculate the stock's next year's expected return.