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You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2020: June 2008
- You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2020: June 2008 through October 2011 (financial crisis); the 12-month transition periods before and after the financial crisis; February 2020 through May 2020 (the COVID-19 crisis); and the remaining periods of low volatility. In order to test your hypothesis, you examine month-end values of the VIX from January 2004 through May 2020 (197 observations) and conduct the following regression: Dependent variable Y: Month-end value of VIX Dummy variable X1: Financial Crisis: 1 if between June 2008 through Oct 2011, 0 if not Dummy variable X2: Transition period: 1 if in 12 months before or after the financial crisis (June 2007 May 2008, or Nov 2011 Oct 2012) Dummy variable X3: COVID-19 crisis: 1 if between Feb 2020 through May 2020, 0 if not The results for the regression are as follows
| Coefficients | Standard Error |
Intercept | 14.63 | 0.5154 |
Financial Crisis | 13.71 | 1.0464 |
Transition | 6.02 | 1.2971 |
COVID-19 crisis | 24.20 | 2.9608 |
- How would the introduction of Dummy variable X4: Low volatility period (Jan 2004 May 2007, or Nov 2012 Jan 2020) affect the output of this regression? Why?
- Which of the coefficients are significant at the 0.01 level?
- According to the regression result, what was the average value of the VIX during the Financial Crisis?
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