Question
You have a second potential project for which you want to establish the value of any possible real options. The project will have an initial
You have a second potential project for which you want to establish the value of any possible real options. The project will have an initial cost of $50 million, which must be paid at the time of investment. You realize that the project has three possible cash flows starting in year 1 and continuing forever. First, there is a 12% chance of earning $1.36 million per year starting in year 1. Second, there is a 30% chance of earning $7.24 million per year starting in year 1. Third, there is a chance the the project will earn $3.04 million per year. These are the only three possibilities. In 2 year(s), you will be able to abandon the project and sell it for $38 million, but will give up the cash flows starting one year after you abandon (if you abandon in year 1, you receive the year 1 CFs but no CFs after that). The risk-free rate and appropriate discount rate for the project is 5%.
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