You have been asked to assist a small business in developing some forecast models for its products. Demand for the product is seasonal, peaking during the last quarter of the year. The company has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during the past five years.

	Orders (1,000s)
Quarter	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
January-March	196.8	184.2	230.3	240.6	279.6
April-June	275.5	286.6	307.5	305.7	327.4
July-September	225.8	216.6	227.6	261.5	248.4
October-December	442.4	508.0	498.9	502.7	560.5

Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these order data. Forecast demand for each quarter of 2018 (using linear trend line forecast estimate for orders in 2018).

Develop a separate linear trend line forecast for each of the four seasons and forecast each season for 2018.

Which of the two approaches used in (a) and (b) appears to be the more accurate? Use MAPD to verify your selection.