You have noticed as a manager, as a result of the current economic climate, sales volume may be $20\%$ below target for your organisation's current financial year. Senior Management are concerned that this may severely impact profit projections. The company can tolerate a $10\%$ variance in profit projections; however, more than this could severely affect the organisation's ability to pay obligations and invest. Reliable data twill be avaialbe by midway of Q$2$ in relation to sales data, to determine whether the risk has eventuated.

You are required to provide a risk assessment and develop a contingency plan to manage the risk of sales falling $20\%.$

$1.$ Identify at least $2$ risks and contingency planning to accommodation them.

$2.$ You have received sales data from Q$2,$ this confirms that actual sales have dropped short of the original budget planned by $15\%.$ How would you revise the budget and explain the shortfall. What factors could be contributing to this?

$3.$ How can the budget reflect a more accurate and achievable outcome, what factors could be considered to determine this?