Answered step by step
Verified Expert Solution
Link Copied!

Question

1 Approved Answer

You have recently been assigned to the production planning department within your company. Your firm makes large blades for power generation windmills. The windmills are

You have recently been assigned to the production planning department within your company. Your firm makes large blades for power generation windmills. The windmills are mostly used in the western part of the country and take about a week to build.

Your boss has provided you with the monthly demand for blades from the last year and asked that you produce a forecast for January so that he can work with the material planning and scheduling department to make sure that the required materials are on hand and schedule the workers hours.

Using the data provided, produce forecasting models using the following:

  • Simple Moving Average (on a 4 month moving average)
  • Weighted Moving Average (4 month moving average with weights = 0.4, 0.3, 0.2. 0.1)
  • Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.3) (assume forecast for January is the same as the actual demand)

Provided Data for Forecasting Modules

Data

Demand

January

1750

February

1700

March

1650

April

1600

May

1625

June

1650

July

1650

August

1750

September

1750

October

1600

November

1550

December

1500

Questions to be addressed

  1. While the MAD can be used to determine which forecasting method is the most accurate, normally, the MAPE is a better measure. So, compare the MAPE of the three methods and determine which is the best model (e.g. the most accurate).

  2. Base on the chosen model, what should you recommend to your boss as the forecasted demand for January?

  3. Produce a line chart that shows all three of the forecast and the actual demand.

  4. Review the chart and the data. Do you think that the forecasts have given you an accurate result? Do you notice any trends in the data that could affect the January forecast? If so, what would you recommend to your boss?

Forecasting Models

  • Simple Moving Average (on a 4 month moving average)
  • Weighted Moving Average (4 month moving average with weights = 0.4, 0.3, 0.2. 0.1)
  • Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.3) (assume forecast for January is the same as the actual demand)

Step by Step Solution

There are 3 Steps involved in it

Step: 1

Lets break down the task step by step performing the necessary calculations for each forecasting model and then comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE to determine the most accurate model 1 ... blur-text-image

Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions

See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success

Step: 2

blur-text-image

Step: 3

blur-text-image

Ace Your Homework with AI

Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance

Get Started

Recommended Textbook for

Auditing And Other Assurance Services

Authors: Alvin Arens, James Loebbecke, W Lemon, Ingrid Splettstoesser

9th Canadian Edition

0130091243, 978-0130091246

More Books

Students also viewed these Accounting questions

Question

Define positive thinking and cite its benefits.

Answered: 1 week ago

Question

3. How much information do we need to collect?

Answered: 1 week ago

Question

2. What types of information are we collecting?

Answered: 1 week ago

Question

5. How quickly can we manage to collect the information?

Answered: 1 week ago