You have the task of choosing which set of reported loss development factors, based on a large

industry$-$wide data set, would be best to use for your client. You are given the diagonal entries

of the accident year reported loss triangle, as of December $31,2015$:

Reported Claims Development Factors

The following claims are reported during calendar year $2016$:

Determine which of the two reported claim development patterns shown above best reflect the

actual emergence of claims. Explain your answer.