Question
You join a demand planning team and one of your responsibilities is the quarterly planning of a B item. The item has been forecast assuming
You join a demand planning team and one of your responsibilities is the quarterly planning of a B item. The item has been forecast assuming level, trend, and seasonality using Holt-winter for many years. The underlying forecasting equation assumes that level and trend are additive and then the result is multiplicative with the seasonality. The seasonality is quarterly with Q1 being the lowest volume quarter and Q4 being the highest. The table below shows the relevant data. The far-right column x^(t-1,t) is the forecast for the current period. For example, the forecast for 2018 Q4 is 1,197. The historical smoothing constants used by your team for these parts are alpha=0.2, beta=0.1 and gamma=0.1.
Quarter | x(t) | a^(t) | b^(t) | F^(t) | x^(t-1,t) |
2018 Q4 | 2788 | 0.37 | 1197 | ||
2019 Q1 | 1374 | 0.15 | 2592 | ||
2019 Q2 | 2737 | 0.30 | 2437 | ||
2019 Q3 | 2410 | 9141 | 287 | 0.270 | |
2019 Q4 | 3556 |
What is the forecast for 2019 Q3?
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