You just bought a smartphone for $300, and upon checkout, you are asked if you'd like to purchase a one-year "accidental damage" insurance policy, for "only $48". The policy will pay you $300 to replace the phone if it breaks for any reason. If you estimate that your probability of damaging your phone in the next year is about 6% (based of course on googling up some actual statistics, rather than just making up numbers), what is the expected value of purchasing this policy?

Hint: find the expected value of the payout, and subtract the cost of the policy.